More Than 1,000 People Are Moving to Seattle Every Week, Census Report Shows

Comments

1
Yes, it explains it. No "might" about it.
2
I kinda knew this was gonna happen back in 2012.

We legalized both Marriage and weed that year. That made us a haven as well as a beacon for progressives everywhere. The Attorney General's challenge of the travel ban has further cemented our reputation for acceptance and diversity.

We might as well move the statue of liberty to Fremont. I say we should put her across the street from Lenin, and move her arm slightly so she's passing him a joint.
3
Whenever I hear about different cities around the country gaining a bunch of new arrivals, I always wonder what places are losing people, and apparently it's New York. Never would have guessed that.
4
@3, NYC is a great city if you have a lot of $$$$$$, but if you have to be a 9 to 5er it's much tougher to deal with----high rents and high cost of living which takes way from your disposable income to enjoy the arts and culture and forces you to live in the crappy areas if you don't have the $$$$$$, ever more crowded subways, and not as crime free in some parts of the city as one would think.
5
@3,

Do YOU want to live near Trump Tower?

Nobody else does either.
6
@5: I would, because then I'd be by Central Park. And they have a StarBucks.
7
And WHERE are those people's kids going to go to school? Private schools all full, public schools are so over-full they're having to hold classes in trailers, lunch rooms, even basketball courts!

Yo, City Council, you need to impose impact fees NOW to buy land and build more schools. Garfield is over-subscribed by a thousand kids this year, I hear!!! What if there's a fire?
8
Instead of the infamous billboard from the '70s which read, "Will the last person leaving SEATTLE -- Turn out the lights", we should put up a new one that says, "Fuck off, we're full".
9
We need to build a Trump Tower.

I recommend right where the effluents empty into Puget Sound, on a leaky barge.
10
@8 that's the most incredible idea i've seen. where's the gofundme? let's do it
11
@7

Garfield's capacity and enrollment are about the same this year.

Things may well be crowded for the next couple years - but a couple hundred kids crowded, not a thousand

Lincoln High School in Wallingford re-opens fall 2019. Expect a few hundred GHS kids to relocate there.
12
@10 I'm down, though we might have to omit the profanity.
13
SPS is doing some sizeable building, though I don't know their numbers. South of Licton Springs where there used to be a big playfield? Solid school now.
14
@8, YES PLEASE!! And I say leave the profanity in, it's much more impactful.
15
@13 You are spot on re. SPS capital projects. The property south of Licton Springs at 90th & Wallingford was, from the mid-'50s to the early '80s Woodrow Wilson Jr. High. It was closed then along with a bunch of other schools after a significant decline in District enrollment; the campus trasitioned to home for the Indian Heritage high school program and other functions.

SPS enrollment bounced along in the low 40,000s for years. It started growing again in the early 2000s. Currently it's about 53,000 and is projected to continue growing for awhile, though the size of the lower elementary grades has stabilized at approximately 5,000 kids/grade level. (As a hypothetical - 5,000 kids/grade x 13 grades = 65,000 total enrollment.)

The old Wilson campus is re-opening this fall as the home of Cascadia Elementary School and Robert Eagle Staff Middle School. There will be a playfield the community can use after hours between the schools.

Project page FYI. https://bex.seattleschools.org/bex-iv/ca…
16
@8 But we're not even a little bit full. We have about 1/10th the density of Manhattan, and they aren't dense compared to many cities in the world. We outlaw multifamily housing on all but 13% of our land - no wonder housing can't keep up with demand.

Where do the difference between the 10k homes we build and 57k people coming in go? They sprawl to the suburbs, or displace others to do so. If we want to stop sprawl, stop displacement, and be a welcoming city the fix is more housing, faster, not to close our doors.
17
Your title is misleading. 1,000 people a week are not moving to Seattle proper, it is the Seattle METRO area (which includes Tacoma, Bellevue...) that is gaining 1,000 people per week. Big difference. Just so it's clear, the population of 3,798,902 is also for the METRO area, which includes many counties. Seattle's 2016 population estimate is 686,800.

Please make your title more accurate by adding the word "Metro" after Seattle. Otherwise, you are propagating misleading facts. Thank you.
18
@11,

When I said over-subscribed, I meant the kids that wanted to attend Garfield (ever looked at their waiting list?), not the October number SPS reports, which, BTW, doesn't count ALL students that are actually there - such as the kids that aren't there full-day, and kids in some special programs! Those kids still need seats to put their butts on when they're there; and fires can happen anytime, not just conveniently when the Running Start kids, or part-time-on-line kids, or kids doing internships or work part-time, or special education kids who have shorter days, etc..., aren't there!

1. Even if we use the low-balled numbers that SPS uses to short-change the schools' budgets, Seattle's public schools are still fucked - look at their enrollment projections:

SPS' 5-yr enrollment projections

http://sps.ss8.sharpschool.com/cms/one.a…

Garfield's SPS projections:

2016-17. 1721πŸ”₯
2017-18. 1888πŸ”₯
2018-19. 2011πŸ”₯
2019-20. 2160πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2020-21. 2404πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

Garfield's building capacity: 1594

BTW, SPS includes in building capacity all SPACE AVAILABLE that can be POSSIBLY REPURPOSED for students, and not ACTUAL classroom seats! Garfield has a historical-building designation, so whether their repurposing hopes are realistic is problematic.

2. Garfield overflow can't just go to Lincoln, or any other school! That choice was killed when those bigots, er, "concerned" parents sued SPS ALL THE WAY TO THE SUPREME COURT, so their children didn't have to go to school with darker pigmented children! Also, LINCOLN will be full almost the second it opens with Wallingford's, Greenlake's, AND Queen Anne's kids.

Lincoln's SPS projections

2019-20. 880
2020-21. 991

3. Now, I can't figure out how SPS came up with these numbers, since according to their own projections in the SAME report, the middle schools that will feed into Lincoln - assuming that no other kids move into Seattle or come from private schools, which is an assumption so unrealistic that it's grossly negligent, BTW - are expecting:

HIMS

2018-19. 1039
2019-20. 1044
2020-21. 1132

Robert Eagle Staff

2018-19. 713
2019-20. 722
2020-21. 731

Let's do some basic arithmetic, and compare with SPS' projected numbers for Lincoln:

1039 + 713 = 1752 v. SPS projected: 880
1044 + 722 = 1766. v. SPS projected: 991
1132 + 731 = 1863. v. SPS: ?

Notice how the numbers for HIMS ALONE are greater than SPS' projections of kids going on to Lincoln?
So SPS must be using alternative math?

4. For laughs (or tears!), let's look at the Elementaries' totals that will be feeding into HIMS and Eagle Staff. From SPS' projections report:

Eagle Staff Service Area:
BT+ Greenwood + Licton Spring + Northgate

2017-18. 1574
2018-19. 1534
2019-20. 1542
2020-21. 1530

πŸ”ΊHIMS Service Area
Greenlake +Day + Cascadia + West Woodland + John Stanford + MacDonald

2017-18. 2974 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2018-19. 3022 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2019-20. 3019 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2020-21. 3014 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

See any problem here @MadronaDweller? Hint, HIMS Capacity is 985, AND there's NO field/playground to plonk portables on!!

5. Let's remind ourselves of SPS projections for HIMS:

2018-19. 1039
2019-20. 1044
2020-21. 1132

Now I realize that some kids go private for middle school, then come back to public for high school, but TWO THOUSANDS PLUS kids leave SPS after 5th grade, just from HIMS service area? Dream on, there AREN'T ENOUGH seats in private schools for them, after the private schools ES kids take their spots!

6. SPS' projections for Lincoln, which will be taking kids from HIMS + at least half of the kids from Eagle Staff, AND Queen Anne's kids since Queen Anne High is now high-priced condo-nirvana:

2019-20. 880
2020-21. 991

Adding to these SPS' sad computation math problems, is the fact that they calculated that enrollment will actually GO DOWN in many of their projections - when Seattle is adding 1,000 people per WEEK - and we can see that it's worse than bad math - they're either using a fucking divining rod, or, cough, cough, outright fudging the numbers?

7. SPS says they're using HISTORICAL boundaries for Lincoln, irresponsibly ignoring that Queen Anne High was sold by them after they CLOSED Lincoln and Queen Anne in 1981, and the Queen Anne kids will have to go somewhere! Garfield, Ballard, Ingraham are bursting and will get worse (notice all the condos, apartment buildings popping up all over Ballard lately?) Those QA kids are definitely heading to Lincoln!

SPS says they used these schools' 2015-16 numbers to project Lincoln's enrollment for 2019-20 and 2020-21: Greenlake, Day; W Wooland, Bagley, Greenwood

Let's add, BUT, oops, WHERE are the numbers for Bagley and Greenwood? Did they have zero students in 2015?

With just THREE schools out of the FIVE they said were used, we have:

2015-16: 334 + 285 + 532 = 1152!!

That's 1152 - 880 = 272 kids MORE than SPS's projection, BEFORE counting the kids from Bagley and Greenwood!

AND we now have several NEW SCHOOLS that were built and reopened since Lincoln was closed! WHERE are the kids from Cascadia at Lincoln (753), MacDonald (453), Licton Springs, and Hazel Wolf going?

And the Queen Anne kids who have NO high school (RIP QA High)?

8. I'm not a school-capacity wonk. I count whales, not kids. I'm just using SPS projection report, and adding. And the numbers, as you can see above, are not adding up as they say!

Here ARE some people who do work in capacity projection; they're also confused by SPS ways with numbers:

The Garfield Enrollment Puzzler Parts 1&2, posted on Save Seattle School's blog:

http://saveseattleschools.blogspot.com/2…

http://saveseattleschools.blogspot.com/2…

9. And EVEN with SPS' too-LOW numbers, look again at just HIMS, and tell me if you think there's no problem here, and that Seattle City Council should just sit on their asses and do NOTHING!

HIMS Service Area's K-5 Enrollment Totals
2017-18. 2974 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2018-19. 3022 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2019-20. 3019 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2020-21. 3014 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

THREE.THOUSAND.KIDS to somehow fit into a school that can hold max 985! Let's ask SFD to opine!

Are you a real estate developer who might be affected by impact fees, @MadronaDweller?
19
* UGH, don't know why the autocorrect gremlins changed my colons to periods!

It should be:

HIMS Service Area
Greenlake +Day + Cascadia + West Woodland + John Stanford + MacDonaldΒ 

2017-18: 2974 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2018-19: 3022 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2019-20: 3019 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯
2020-21: 3014 πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

and so on with the other stats that should have colons and NOT periods...
20
Before one of the internet mansplaining warriors (men AND women!) ding me again: yes, the two SSS blog's articles I linked aren't from this year, but SPS counting process is still mystical.
21
Let's reunite the States, build a wall at RepubliKKKans' expense, and ship Trumpzilla and its lackeys out! I vote for Siberia as the perfect exile spot.
22
Rezone Wallingford 6+2 MFH