Comments

1
I think it will be McGinn and Oliver, but that's not even an option in your poll so what do I know. As for the council race, I think it'll be Mosqueda and Nelson or Mosqueda and Grant.
2
@1 Dang it. Thanks for the note. Option added.
3
#1, Pretty much not an option because Durkan is virtually assured one of the slots. (& no, she's not my choice; just pointing out the reality.)
4
Durkan vs McGinn. Money vs Name. Hasegawa a strong third. Oliver and Farrell will have embarrassing results. Vote Moon.
5
Durkan and Oliver, because of course we're going to have to pick between the two I'd least want to see doing the day-to-day job of running the city.
6
Position 8: Although Jon Grant is a fierce housing advocate—😍 25 percent mandatory housing affordability 😍

Isn't it odd that the NIMBY/BANANA crowd seems to love the "fierce housing advocate" in the race? Perhaps they know that 25% is a cynical way to pretend to care about affordable housing while actually killing it:

https://medium.com/yes-in-my-blog-yes/th…

Whether Grant is cynically aware of this, and hates developers more than he loves affordable housing, I don't pretend to know, but I don't really think it matters. At any rate, hopefully your prediction is correct, and we'll get the real affordable housing advocate, Teresa Mosqueda, who cares about getting the units more than taking a stand and screwing over developers.
7
I have to agree with Zander @4.

Not necessarily my favorites, but I'm guessing McGinn vs. Durkan after the primary.

I've had several people tell me they will vote for McGinn, mostly based on name recognition. A huge percentage of the voters have never heard of the other 20 people on the list, so McGinn has a huge name recognition advantage there. Durkan has the most money to throw at the race, and has had a bunch of big endorsements, so she seems likely to be the other one to make it through.
8
Ugh. I will be so disappointed if its McGinn v. Durkan. Out of a field of promising candidates (I'll be happy with Oliver or Farrell), there's a good chance we wind up with Durkan (aka establishment who will be a step backward for us) and McGinn (who is simply the wrong choice. I like McGinn 2.0 much less than I liked McGinn 1.0). Maybe a progressive with high name ID could run as a write-in. It was a tough choice for me when they were running against one another, but I'd support either Jayapal or Walkinshaw over McGinn or Durkan. They both have the name ID to win.
9
Durkan and her big money allies will have bought the #1 spot, likely by a significant margin (taking a 21 candidate field into account).

The differance between #2 and #3 will be so close that #3 will demand a recount.
10
Getting a Durkan mailing in my mailbox Every Single Day got annoying really quickly.
11
In the race to face Durkan, I see it as a tossup between Farrell, Moon, and Oliver, with McGinn at least having a shot and Hasegawa having no shot, even though I could see him finishing as high as fourth.

As someone who considers Jessyn Farrell the best candidate for any office this city has seen in this century, there's one data point I find encouraging. Her endorsements page lists tons of endorsements, especially from elected officials and organizations.

In contrast, Cary Moon lists only two endorsements on her endorsements page: The Stranger and The Urbanist. I think that speaks to her having never established herself as much of a team player in her career as an activist. And as for that Stranger endorsement, thankfully (in this context) I just don't see The Stranger carrying nearly the weight in the media landscape it did four years ago.

And Mike McGinn? You can't even find any endorsements listed on his campaign site.

By the same token, I'm disappointed over the one endorsement Jessyn doesn't have. Dow Constantine. With the possible exception of Rob Johnson, there is no politician more in tune with Dow than Jessyn. I can only imagine he was afraid to cross the Durkan machine.
12
By the same token, I'm disappointed over the one endorsement Jessyn doesn't have. Dow Constantine. With the possible exception of Rob Johnson, there is no politician more in tune with Dow than Jessyn.

It's frustrating that the SECB loves Dow, but can't see the similarities. (Or that Dow's effectiveness comes from actual political experience, which doesn't seem to matter to them at all as they split between the politicial neophytes with the prettiest words.)
13
Oooh I'm betting that Stranger writers are way, way, way overestimating the support for Oliver outside their bubble. I predict she comes in fourth. (Not because I hate her, she's maybe my third-favorite.)

I hadn't actually thought about this, but McGinn gets through because in a field of 279, name recognition is huge. And Durkan, because Seattle Times readers love prosecutors.
14
Couldn't help but note that the smartest writers - Eli Sanders, Sydney Brownstone, and Sean Nelson - were all the least confident in their predictions.
15
I'm grateful I could vote, no matter who wins. If this seems naive, please note the "election" yesterday in the socialist paradise of Venezuela. Paradise: freedom to publicly disagree without fear of retaliatory harassment, such as loss of job; respectful exchange of opinions based on genuine curiosity and consideration; attempt to strike the right balance between individual freedom and societal responsibility; desire to know the truth, in all its complexity, rather than fear of not repeating kingpin-approved dogmas; vote tallies, the accuracy of which can be trusted. I hope all eligible Seattleites vote, no matter who and what they support.
16
As someone who gave to Oliver's campaign--I, too, think a lot of people are overestimating support (from likely primary voters) for Nikkita Oliver. However, I think she has an electoral edge for the simple fact that Farrell, Moon, Hasegawa, and McGinn are basically fighting one another for voters while Durkan and Oliver have more clearly established bases of support. Durkan is a near-certainty--most registered Republicans (not many in Seattle, but enough to matter in a wide-open field like this) will vote for her, along with quite a few "don't rock the boat" old-school Seattle liberals and other people who admire prosecuting attorneys, I guess. So I'm leaning Durkan vs. Oliver, but this is a really hard race to predict.

I also think Eli has a point--the huge field of candidates leaves an opening for a dark horse like actual Richard Spencer clone Greg Hamilton. If that happens, Seattle, I expect you all to swallow your fucking pride and vote Durkan in the general election over Pepe the fucking Frog.
17
Vote McGinn!!!
www.dougsvotersguide.com
18
@16, I don't think that's right about Hasegawa. His appeal is to people who might otherwise be Oliver-curious--older, minority working class/union, generally liberal but feeling left behind and like the 'more power to the neighborhoods' message, but for whom Hasegawa feels "safer" than Oliver.

Recall that Hamilton will be splitting the "we really hate homeless people, taxes suck" vote with Harley Lever, and several other people I can't recall. Zero chance.

19
Hey, with the DOUG. @17 endorsement in the bag, maybe it's not too late for mcginnformayor.com to finally add an endorsements page. 8-)
20
@8
"Maybe a progressive with high name ID"

So uh, Nikkita Oliver?

Please wait...

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