Comments

1
Charles - please correct this to indicate that the new total will be 14 million square feet, not an additional 14 million square feet; the math error distracts from your point.
2
By my math: existing square footage=8.1M Anticipated square footage=14M, which means Amazon is looking to add an additional 6M sq ft, not 14M.
3
A stock market crash, which can't be ruled out but doesn't seem likely, would definitely slow down Amazon's spending, but it wouldn't affect their available cash (unless they started spending it on stock, which they would probably do). Amazon can generally borrow cheap, and probably only issues new shares as part of employee compensation plans. So it would not have much of an impact on their ability to raise capital or finance new projects. The reasons their spending would slow down would be more about classic issues, uncertainly and IRRs than a shortage of $$$. Portraying them as a minor event away from destruction is not really helpful or informative.
4
@ my math was write but headline wrong. I said just passed the middle point of its historical expansion. this right if 2 million are added.
5
@1) fixed.
6
Just offer the cat one of those greasy cardboards with elastic substance on top, also known as a Pagliacci cheese pizza, and he will run back to the wild.
7
Now to your post - I agree that everyone seems way too concerned regarding HQ2. In fact, I believe a second physical location can only help Amazon overall, and is likely to be a stabilizing force that will help temper the fluctuations overly large corporations can experience. It seems highly unlikely that Amazon will pit HQ2 against HQ1 in such a way that it disadvantages either location. I am actually concerned that the behemoth is continuing to expand here, and becoming too much of an influence locally - we shouldn't have to jump every time Amazon sneezes.
8
@4: No, your math is also wrong if the context is wrong.
9
We may come to see HQ2 as the greatest gift Jeff Bezos ever gave Seattle. I like Amazon, and I don't want them to leave, but their footprint in Seattle is becoming heavy.
10
Charles dear, what "map"are you referring to that Amazon finally put Seattle on? The map that aging hipster day drinkers use when they need to post something to meet their employment obligations?

Amazon is just the latest in a long line of companies, beginning with Schwabacher Hardware, that put Seattle on "the map"
12
@3 Charles is correct that Amazon is very vulnerable to a stock market crash. The company’s price earnings ratio is astronomical in a market that many already consider overvalued by historical standards.

Amazon has actually earned very little in profits over its history given its market value. Although it’s cash flow appears healthier than its profitability, Amazon’s free cash flow appears deceptively high. Because Amazon relies heavily on capital leases rather than direct capital investment, much of its future cash flow is actually required to replace equipment that is being depreciated under straight line methods.

If planned future growth fails to materialize, then Amazon’s stock will likely tumble. Amazon’s current stock price reflects expectations of growth that may not be feasible or sustainable.

Of course, Amazon’s efforts to create HQ2 reflect one of the barriers to its growth. The City of Seattle itself simply cannot grow fast enough for Amazon to build the future that its stock market valuation is anticipating.

If Amazon cannot actually sustain this rate of growth, it won’t be the first time that “animal spirits” have inflated market valuations. Seattle could be vulnerable to a repeat of its 1970s slump if Amazon’s stock price collapses.
13
Why has no one pointed out that HQ2 is most likely because Bezos-bot has crunched the odds of a super quake, or nuclear attack, and found them to be high enough to warrant a backup HQ. Not about jobs or spreading the wealth.

Senior execs leaving the wreckage of Seattle behind as soon as the first private jets / helicopters can take off.

If Washington DC, I predict at least 65 miles from the capital - outside of the "flash blindness" zone.
14
Mrs. Vel-DuRay for the win, as usual. Congratulations, my dear; you remain in fine form! :-D

Charles: Boeing?
15
@10 FTW - you are a SLOG treasure, my dear.
And interesting quake theory @13, but I think it is for political cover. With Bezos owning the WaPo and already in the Trumpster's crosshairs, look for HQ2 to drop in a red state. My money is on Texas.

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