She's in the lead. But theres still time.
She's in the lead! But there's plenty of time to blow it.

According to a sweet new live poll from the New York Times, Kim Schrier leads Dino Rossi by a point in the race to replace Dave Reichert in Washington's 8th Congressional District. Rossi didn't even crack 50. Schrier took him 46 to 45, with 9 percent undecided.

That 9 percent undecided is worrisome, though.

When the House Majority PAC polled the district back in April, Rossi led Schrier 51 to 45. So while Rossi is doing worse than he should be, Schrier is polling about as well as she was before a pretty grueling primary.

Maybe the attack ads against Rossi have been working. But I know, you know, analyst Ben Anderstone knows, and Schrier knows that she needs to pick up votes east of the mountains and in east Pierce County if she wants to win. So the question is: What's she's doing toward that end?

Organizers and Schrier's campaign say they've been busy.

Schrier's spokesperson, Katie Rodihan, says the campaign's strategy in the primarily focused on boosting their base. They've since broadened the scope of their organizing efforts.

"We’re looking at turning out low turn-out Democratic voters," Rodihan said. "So getting people who aren’t normally engaged, maybe not registered. The Latino community is a huge one—that’s a group we're targeting to get voters out in Chelan."

Myra Hernandez, who Rodihan says was raised in Wenatchee, has been leading the effort to reach the Latino community in Chelan County. According to the campaign, Hernandez "is putting significant effort into engaging folks in the Latino community and helping to translate where needed," as Hernandez is a "native Spanish speaker."

Though knocking on doors and asking for support is important, Rodihan says they're trying to "make sure that neighbors are talking to their own neighbors." In order to do that the campaign first sends canvasers on a listening tour through neighborhoods to identify top issues and partisan leanings. Then they contact a few people who expressed support for Schrier and try to get them to talk to their friends about their preferred candidate. "We call them 'high quality conversations,'" Rodihan said. "They're more persuasive than just getting some random volunteer at your door."

Schrier's campaign is also actively trying to court primary voters who supported her Democratic rivals—attorney Jason Rittereiser and public health doctor Shannon Hader. "Consolidating Democratic support will be critical, and all evidence we're seeing (volunteers, social media, donors, attendance at meet & greets) indicates that all three camps' voters and energy are behind Kim," Rodihan said in an e-mail.

The Kittitas County Democrats endorsed all three Democratic candidates—Schrier, Jason Rittereiser, and Shannon Hader—in the contested primary. The chair of the club, Steve Verhey, said Schrier's campaign "got off to a slow start after the primary" but added that they're hitting the doors pretty hard now.

"She's been in either Ellensburg or Wenatchee every week this month. Schrier's team and our volunteers have been canvassing every weekend for the past couple of weeks," Verhey said.

Bob Rapp, a Rittereiser fundraiser who's now helping Schrier, said over the phone on Tuesday that he saw Schrier in the district at an event last Sunday. She bought some beer and spent a couple hours talking to approximately 60 Rittereiser and Hader supporters who'd been out canvasing for her.

"She’s educated herself about the district a lot more," Rapp said. "She was able to talk with fairly high fidelity on agricultural issues like water, land use, the poverty gap, and health care."

Rapp says he's organizing two fundraisers for Schrier in October with a group of CEOs from central Washington. "There’s a lot of kumbaya and holding hands and swaying and all that," he said.

Leeroy Perkins, a committee member with the 2nd LD Democrats, which covers south Pierce County, said Schrier came down for a meet-and-greet two weeks ago. According to Perkins, the event wasn't well publicized and there was some fear that only a few people would show up, but he said there was "standing room only." There's a canvasing event for Schrier scheduled in the LD for this Thursday.

"[The Schrier campaign] recognizes the value of east Pierce County," he said. "If they get 10 more votes per precinct they can win."

Perkins thinks Schrier has "a good ground game going," but he longs for bigger signs like the kind Republicans stick up all over the side of the highway.

"It’s true you won’t change somebody’s vote with a big sign," Perkins said, but he thinks they'd meaningfully increase Schrier's name recognition in the area. "If people are driving around and only seeing Dino signs, the perception is that the Democrats aren’t running anyone. But if you get out there and put up oversized signs, it looks like they’re running!"

Then there's the money.

Rodihan says the campaign is "seeing the same fundraising trends that Democrats across the country are seeing" and there is "significant enthusiasm" about that. "We're building up the resources we need to make sure we're able to define Kim and spread her message throughout the district," she said.

Since the primaries, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Paul Ryan's Congressional Leadership Fund have been spending bags and bags of cash on ads in this race.

In August the DCCC spent twice as much money on the 8th as they did on Florida's 26th CD, the next closest House race in terms of spending.

The DCCC knows Rossi is the best candidate the Republicans are running in any toss-up seat, and they're working to define him for voters who somehow may have missed him during his runs for Governor and the Senate. The 8th is statistically the most competitive Congressional race in the state (though Washington's 3rd and 5th are in play, too), and Democrats hope to send one of their own to the House for the first time in the district's history. The House Majority PAC and EMILY's List are helping toward this end, too, contributing $466,344 and $336,490, respectively.

But the Republicans are raising plenty of money, too. On Tuesday the National Republican Congressional Committee reported spending $483,863 against Schrier. The CLF has dropped over a million on Rossi. And Rossi probably has money left over from the amount he raised during the primary. Last his campaign filed, he was leading Schrier by over a million.

So, with a few caveats and after a couple weeks of wound-licking, it seems like organizers out in the south and the east are motivated to boost Schrier's numbers where she needs them most. Looks like this race will continue to be extremely close, incredibly frustrating, and increasingly ugly. Yay.