Hoooooooooooooooooolllllyyyyyyyyy shit we've got some Congressional races here in Washington state. The candidates filed their October numbers with the FEC last night, and things are looking on the up-and-up for the Democrats. In the three most highly contested races every Democrat out-raised her Republican opponent last quarter, and two of the three have gained a fundraising advantage overall.
In Washington's 8th Congressional District, Kim Schrier raised more than three times the amount of money last quarter than Republican Dino Rossi—$3.8 million to $1.2 million. Schrier has now overtaken Rossi for the cycle, out-raising him $5.3 million to $4.2 million. She also has 673,00 more dollars in the bank than he does at the moment.
Schrier's campaign heralds this last haul as the most money raised by "any House candidate ever in Washington state" in three months. Her people seem to be right about that. It's rare for a congressional candidate to raise nearly $4 million even in an entire election cycle in this state. For comparison, I can only find Darcy Burner raising a total of $4.3 million when she ran against Dave Reichert in 2008, and Rep. Suzan DelBene raising a total of $4.4 million when she took on John Koster in the 1st Congressional District.
Schrier's campaign spokesperson, Katie Rodihan, chalks up the success to a resonant message and excitement on the ground. "We're seeing hundreds of volunteers coming out on the weekends, knocking on doors, and activating voters to make sure we flip this seat in November," she said.
The campaign plans to spend the money on voter outreach and voter contact—"ads, field operation, and direct mail."
Rodihan guesses Rossi's lower numbers suggest he doesn't have much more room to grow. "He's been running unopposed for a year now. If he was going to appeal to folks, they would have gotten onboard the Dino train already," she said.
Down in southwest Washington, in a district Trump won by 7 points, Carolyn Long is also putting up impressive numbers. Based on both candidates' filings, last quarter Long raised over 2.5 times more money than four-term Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler. Long now leads the race in fundraising overall.
Herrera Beutler pulled in $600,000 this quarter, which makes for $2.07 million total with $796,000 left to spend. By comparison, Long took $1.75 million this quarter, which makes for $2.4 million total with $1.07 million cash on hand. In a press release, Long's campaign points out that she has raised more "than any candidate—including Jaime Herrera Beutler—has ever previously raised for an entire cycle" in the 3rd Congressional District.
Did Herrera Beutler piss off some Republican fundraisers by trying to distance herself from Trump? Are the two negative ads she's running backfiring? Is she just not doing the work of canvasing? Are people actually mad that she blew off the League of Women Voters and declined to attend any actual debates in the district? And what is Long doing? Do people really like her message of civility? Are they just responding positively to someone showing up and holding over 40 town halls in year? I don't know, but I'm going down there this afternoon for a forum in Battle Ground to see what's what. Stay tuned.
Over in eastern Washington, Democrat Lisa Brown raised over $2.2 million during the same three-month period, overcoming incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers's take by just a little less than a million. When you combine McMorris Rodgers's pre-primary filing with her other third quarter numbers, and the PAC money she directs to her campaign, you come up with around $1.42 million. The Republican still maintains an overall fundraising advantage—$5.1 million to Brown's $4.6 million—and she has more cash on hand by about $50,000.
Though these numbers might seem encouraging for Democrats, they might also trip some weird alarm that causes Trumpian independent expenditures to pour money into these races. All the available public polling suggests that these three races are incredibly close, so it doesn't seem like Republicans will abandon them as they have with others in this cycle. But I'm not sure.
One thing I do know: all of these Democratic candidates are putting up these record-breaking numbers without the help of direct money from corporate PACs. (In some cases, corporations feed non-corporate PACs money, and then those non-corporate PACs donate to these campaigns, but that's not the same as being bought by Boeing.) In this way, these reports point to a meaningful rise in enthusiasm for Democrats across the state.
