Unless something fun happens in eastern Washington, the most flippable U.S. House seat in the state appears to be the one in the 3rd Congressional District, where Carolyn Long and a couple other Democrats are vying to take on five-term incumbent Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler.
This morning Long's campaign announced that she's hauled in over $600,000 from 3,202 individual contributors in her first quarter of fundraising. That's more than double what she raised during her campaign's first 12 weeks in her effort to unseat Herrera Beutler in 2018, which ended in a five point loss, and more evidence that the new campaign is off to a strong start. When Long launched back in July, she was greeted by hundreds on a tour of the district.
Though the Long campaign emphasizes her ability to raise this much money "without taking a dime of Corporate PAC money," these numbers also likely testify to the effectiveness of getting that EMILY's List endorsement early this time.
In terms of total contributions, my guess is Long will likely still trail Herrera Beutler when the incumbent drops her fundraising numbers for the quarter, which cover the period from July 1 to Sept 30. During the first half of this year, Herrera Beutler brought in over $663,000, though more than half of that is PAC money.
But money isn't everything. In the last race Long lost after having outspent Herrera Beutler $3.8 million to $3 million, with $2.2 million in outside spending on her behalf compared to $1.2 million in outside spending for Herrera Beutler. If Long wants to win this time, she needs to increase turnout in Clark County, the district's only liberal-leaning district, and drastically suppress turnout in Lewis County, where she lost by 35 points. Herrera Beutler needs people to just forget that there's an election going on, though something tells me that might not happen in 2020.
Given this task, Long's position on impeachment seems weird. Though the president has committed a comical number of crimes in the cold light of cable television, Long, a Washington State University - Vancouver political science professor who teaches constitutional law, maintains her support for what she calls the House's "whistleblower inquiry," but she doesn't go so far as to endorse Trump's impeachment and removal. I haven't seen any polling out of southwest Washington, but given the nationwide popularity of impeachment, Long's current position seems out of alignment with the populist appeal she's projecting by pointing out the big crowds and big bucks she's pulling in.
The Trump administration's stated refusal to participate in the inquiry hasn't changed Long's position, either. Still, Long's answer is better than the one Herrera Beutler is giving, which is the current Republican party line; Trump's conversation was "not appropriate," but there was no "quid pro quo," so the offense doesn't rise to the level of high crimes. To which I say, LOL.
