Comments

1

Democrats: 'The least inspiring candidate imaginable is surely the only one who can beat the charismatic incumbent ideologue.'

Whatever. This country is toast.

3

"he speaks to voters like it’s 1957 and he’s an extra in West Side Story"

An extra in a movie or play, by definition, does not have a speaking part.

"Whether he is or not, of course, remains to be seen."

It will never be seen. We are not going to have an election where we choose between Trump and Sanders, and then have another election where we choose between Trump and Biden for comparison.

What we can do -- all we can do -- is poll the two scenarios, and compare the results of the polling. And precisely this has been done, more than once, by more than one organization in the past 5 years or so. A journalist should be able to find the results of those polls and relay them to the reader, any time the question comes up, but the scribbling classes seem quite reluctant to do it.

4

I'm reasonably certain that if we ask the Sanders fanatics what explains Biden's resurgence the answer will be: it is a DNC conspiracy! All the moderates who are not Biden drop out and endorse Biden? The Illuminati! What is truly aggravating is that even if Sanders was the nominee and was completely annihilated after being processed through the red-baiting ringer for a few months the conspiracy theories would not be diminished in the least. It would still be the fault of the DNC, 'corporate' Dems, the tri-lateral commission, space aliens. Not for instance the fault of total fucking nitwits high on the fumes in their coastal urban bubble who are willfully oblivious of the reality on the ground in the country they live in.

For the record: I think Biden is a doofus. I also think the Democratic establishment wants to win the election. And unlike the fringey naifs who haunt Slog comments they have absolutely no delusions about the electorate in this country: right-wing, none too bright, easily swayed by fear-mongering (and one of the most tried and true methods for mongering fear has been and continues to be red baiting).

5

I don't like Biden one bit. I don't like Bernie either. Voters went out and voted. Unless we believe this is another Russian interference scenario, the voters have spoken.

6

Or, I don't know, is it possible that the more moderate mostly non-white voters that make up the vast majority of the Democratic electorate are, like, also human beings with their own different but still well-considered political opinions and Biden tends to share more of those opinions? Is that possible?

7

@4 & @6: Thoughtful comments. Thanks.

8

You raise some interesting points, but make oversimplified generalizations. For example:

1) Money doesn't matter. Oh really? Tell that to every governor who dropped out before Iowa. Or tell that to de Blasio, the current mayor of New York. By all rights, he should do much better than the old (Republican) major of New York in a Democratic primary, but Bloomberg rose much higher in the polls, and ended up with way more delegates, even though he didn't even join the race until late (and skipped several early races). The only reason is that Bloomberg had money, while none of those other candidates did.

2) Debates don't matter. Tell that to Bloomberg. He was riding high until Warren cut him down. (If I was Warren, I would use this slogan: "I defeated one Republican Billionaire, nominate me and I'll defeat another one"). There are also plenty of examples where debate performance was clearly a factor, if not the main difference in the race.

3) Eloquence doesn’t win votes. Eloquence is the only reason that the mayor of South Bend Indiana was ever seriously considered for President. Holy shit, there was even a brief period where this obviously unqualified candidate -- who has done nothing else, and is short, and is gay -- was considered a front runner. If he talked like an average person he wouldn't have done a thing. Same with Bill Clinton, by the way. No great policy initiatives, no great record of success, but damn, was he smooth talker.

4) Grassroots campaigns don't win votes. Wrong again. Sanders was the frontrunner based almost entirely on his grassroots campaign. The only reason he is still in the race is because of that. Otherwise those votes would have gone to Warren (a fundamentally stronger candidate, who has never called herself a socialist, or said anything nice about Castro, and accomplished more in her shorter life). Biden's South Carolina success (upon which everything else is built) was largely all grassroots. He was outspent (by two billionaires) and didn't have great press. But he had lots and lots of people who liked him, having built a good relationship over the years.

5) Endorsements don't matter. Yeah, that one is true. There is very little evidence that endorsements matter for big ticket races. Down ballot issues are a completely different story.

6) Name recognition is key. It doesn't hurt, but Hillary Clinton was defeated by Barack Obama, despite lots of people not knowing exactly how to pronounce his name.

There are lots of factors for being elected. Being tall, male, and white are all helpful. But we've had ... hold on let me check .. OK one president that wasn't a white man. And almost all presidents in the last 50 years were six feet or taller; but not all of them.

Anyway, this race has been a complete mess, starting with the debates. Ten people on a stage is ridiculous. You should have 5 or 6, max. We don't have second choice voting, and Super Tuesday makes it worse. There is no time for folks to pick their second choice -- we went from a seven person race to two person race (for the most part) in about a week.

All of the factors mentioned played a part. The governors dropped out in part because of lack of name recognition as well as money. Sanders did really well early. But despite front runner status, people did not coalesce behind him -- quite the opposite. Opposition grew not only from other candidates, but from those in the party. Lots of people either don't like him, or fear that he would hurt the party's chances in November (I disagree on both counts, but whatever). Biden appeared to be struggling, so Bloomberg jumped in, believing himself to be the great moderate savior. Warren kicked his ass in the debates, severely hurting his chances. Biden focused on South Carolina, and did extremely well there. That helped him going into Super Tuesday, especially as the narrative became it being a two person race.

There isn't one single factor that matters when it comes to running a race; they all matter to various degrees.

9

Biden wasn't my first choice, nor was he my second. This 50-year-old white guy went from Harris to Warren because they were, and remain, the best qualified candidates. But I also grew up in the South. The experience of over-educated white people, like many of us in Seattle, is very different from people in the rest of the country. A lot of those people have a hell of a lot more to lose than people like me. I'm hanging on to my ballot but if Warren drops out I'm voting for Biden. I have concerns about his ability to handle what is coming his way. I have similar concerns about Bernie but for different reasons.

Democrats are scared shitless that Trump will win again. They also may like Warren and Harris but don't think a woman can win based on the experience of watching Hillary Clinton lose. They also may think a gay guy or a socialist can't win either. They might be wrong on all counts, but that seems to have been the conclusion of the people who voted for Biden yesterday. And we'll have to see the data but it sure seems like the new voters in the Democratic primary were actually moderates and ex-Republicans. If those people in the suburbs in Virgina, North Carolina, etc, show up to vote for Biden then Biden.

Also, the idea that the "Dem establishment" beat Bernie is laughable. Does anyone truly think that the Democratic establishment has its shit together enough to get million of people to vote for Biden? Anyone remember the Iowa caucus? The people at the DNC could fuck up a two-car funeral if you spotted them the hearse.

11

The goal is to get rid of Trump. All else is secondary to that. Bernie is a certain loser. Warren too. Biden has a fighting chance.

12

@ 11,

That’s exactly what people said about Clinton in 2016. I pray to the FSM that I’m wrong about this, but the parallels are unnerving.

A Biden nomination does reset expectations much, much lower down to the “we’ll still be totally screwed by the oligarchs” level. That’s why they’re dancing with glee.

14

If you aren't for Bernie, I have no problem with that. Different strokes and all. But I just can't see how anyone thinks Biden is not going to get destroyed by Trump. Biden is like Kerry, HClinton, McCain & Romney rolled into one. He's got loser written all over him. There's nothing there. And what is there, has been representing the credit card companies and Delaware's insanely lax corporate tax laws for 50 years. Biden is exactly what Trump runs against every single day. Biden is how Trump came to power. He's going to destroy the guy. And Biden's response will be an angry word salad.

15

@14 He's going to destroy Biden's word salad with his own word salad?

Trump's greatest asset is that idiots see themselves in him. He is as gleefully ignorant, reactionary and incoherent as they are. Given that fact, Biden's inarticulateness might prove to be an asset.

16

@14 Many, many Americans hated Hillary Clinton with the fire of 1000 suns, and still do. Just like many many Americans hate Donald Trump. But, Joe Biden is a likeable sort of guy, regardless of how you feel about his middling politics. He doesn't scare people. He'll win.

17

The "moderates" are forever worried about a "McGovern" replay. I am worried about a Humphrey, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, H. Clinton replay... I mean seriously, how many times do we have to go through this. The idea that nominating an uninspiring centrist is somehow the "responsible" choice is a dead end idea.

18

@17 The idea of nominating an 'inspiring' socialist in a country wide swaths of which is only marginally more progressive than Saudi Arabia, now that's not a 'dead end' idea. It is however a crackpot idea.

19

What I don't understand is why everyone is endorsing Biden like he is the assumed next President; it reminds me starkly of what happened in 2016 with Hillary Clinton.

It won't play at all; Biden will be roasted by Trump and we will have another 4 years of Trump.

Media is completely at fault as they have the power to tell you who to vote for (and you follow through). This includes The Stranger as they tell you how to vote as well.

20

I gotta hand this to Bloomberg- that was a damn good ad campaign.
It saturated my YouTube feed for weeks and they were solid, hard-hitting anti-Trump ads.
A lot of middle America is easily swayed by Fox News which is actively retailing a version of Trump inevitability so countering that is extremely important.

21

For all the "it's Hillary all over again!" people, you do remember that she did pretty darn good right? The Democrats got really, really close in 2016 running their supposedly uninspiring moderate. Clinton didn't just win the popular vote in the error brackets like Gore, she won it emphatically, and there's a whole lot of ways the vagaries of the electoral college could have tipped it the other way. Running a candidate who is also fairly moderate, doesn't have as much baggage (deserved or not) as Hillary is probably about as close to a safe bet as you can get.

I personally think Sanders would have been a huge McGovern-style flop, but like @3 said there's not really any way to know. (And to address @17, McGovern was the biggest defeats in modern electoral history. At least all the "safe" moderates who lost lost close. I do think inability to remember 1972 is a big part of generational gap we're seeing here!)

22

This kinda comes off as sour grapes. Biden might not be the most inspiring candidate, but he's better than Hillary. He also has a message that a much larger number of people find to be palatable.

At the very least, Super Tuesday showed us that Bernie's secret progressive army was a mirage. He dramatically underperformed, leaving me very skeptical he will ever break free of his 25-30% ceiling.

23

I’m gonna shred my primary ballot.

25

People on the margins tend to be more conservative because even small changes can result in disaster for them in the short term and they might not survive long enough for the bigger gains in the long term. Hard to blame them for that, but we still need to try for those big gains so there are fewer people facing those hard choices down the road.

26

Once again, "The People have spoken ... the bastards!"

28

@27- was there a typo there or is that your understanding of history?
I can think of loads of revolutions that were not only hard on oligarchs but greatly benefited masses of people.

31

@11: "The goal is to get rid of Trump. All else is secondary to that."…

Au contraire, Swiftress.

The goal is to take the Senate and keep the House; the Presidency is a secondary goal. Since there's a good chance 45 will win again, and so become our last President, only a Democratic majority and a Congress that can truly hold him accountable can get rid of him with certainty and end this blight. Reimpeach, convict, remove and emprison.

If we win the Presidency in 2020, yet fail to take the Senate, it's gridlock and obstruction Ă  la Obama all over again.

So the priorities are: 1) Take back the Senate and keep the House; and 2) hope for the best in the Presidential election.

32

@11 that is not my goal. trump is a symptom, not the disease. the democrats are a HUGE part of the disease. their terrible policies and complete lack of interest in doing anything for the good of the majority of people is what led to the rise of trump and others like him. electing joe biden does nothing to change that dynamic.

now, if a grievous joe biden loss occurs, that could help with the disease. know this, if it's joe biden, vs trump, i'll write in bernie. and there are a lot of people just like me out there. we don't want democrats to win. we want democrats to change. THEN, we want democrats to win. corporate democrat for 4-8 years? no thanks. i'd rather have trump and another shot at changing the democratic party in 4 years. corporate democrats are our political enemies, not our policitical allies. and we don't care if you blame us for trump, because we blame YOU.

33

From today's NYT: "How Bernie Sanders Can Still Win It All":

"How can a campaign as explicitly revolutionary as Mr. Sanders’s reach voters who already feel exhausted by the dizzying destruction of norms under the Trump administration?

It’s simple, I think, or ought to be: The Sanders camp must imagine (to borrow a tongue-in-cheek bit of internet-speak) a 'normie' democratic socialist — a person who is in most every sense ordinary but who may still be interested in the benefits of the kinds of programs Mr. Sanders has in mind.

It’s not such a ridiculous idea. In many countries with economic development comparable to that of the United States, the programs Mr. Sanders has built his candidacy on are mundane facts of life: Universal health care, subsidized child care and guaranteed paid parental leave are all de rigueur in much of Europe, for example.

This is what led Prime Minister Sanna Marin of Finland to remark that life in her country more closely approximates the American dream than America itself does: 'We have a very good education system. We have a good health care and social-welfare system that allows anybody to become anything.'

In other words, the way of life sought by recipients of the kinds of programs Mr. Sanders proposes isn’t radically different from the way of life many, if not most, Americans aspire to. It’s just easier to actually live it there."

--Elizabeth Bruenig, an NYT Opinion writer.
March 5, 2020, 3:02 p.m. ET

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/opinion/bernie-sanders-joe-biden.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage#commentsContainer

34

Mor from @33: "Mr. Sanders needs to make the case that funding them [uUniversal health care, subsidized child care and guaranteed paid parental leave -- all de rigueur in much of Europe] federally and making them available to all parents is wise, possible and not at all unusual.

Here his pitch becomes somewhat paradoxical. While these are workaday government services in many places, America lags our peers here, meaning that introducing them will require a kind of revolutionary politics.

But that revolution need not mean what voters fear in the word: chaos and strife.

Instead it can be as simple as this: Go to the voting booth for Mr. Sanders, because he wants all kids — your kids, my kids — to be safe and happy. He wants to give all parents time to nurse, cuddle and bond with their newborns without sinking into debt or poverty.

It doesn’t take a radical to embrace the idea that people ought to be able to have and care for their families whether they are rich or poor, nor a revolutionary to see that making such provisions universal is the fair and just thing to do.

Those are the most basic and common of political aspirations: family values."

--Elizabeth Bruenig, an NYT Opinion writer.
March 5, 2020, 3:02 p.m. ET

35

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36

Sanders and Warren divided the more leftist Dems, who so far have shown themselves to be a minority of Democratic voters.

Many of America's minorities, coming from male dominated cultural backgrounds, by and large are not ready to vote for any female President, candidate.

There was far too wide of a field of candidates with too many "unknowns" (after all, who were Andrew Yang ,Tom Steyer and that host of politicos unknown outside their home states or districts?). The cluster fuck debates didn't show us why we should consider most of them. Three-quarters (or more) of that field should have dropped out early last fall. Egos blinded them to the writing on the wall.

Sanders presents himself as perpetually having a pole up his ass. He is as unlikable as Donald Trump (they share a similar grating arrogance). I like the message but not the candidate and would rather the message come from someone else. I can't vote for someone who annoys me just as much as Donald Trump does. Sorry.

Democrats are more centrist than the proressives want to believe. The political pendulum in America is just now beginning a slow, incremental leftward downswing. Progressive candidates misread the majority of Democratic voters. They're not ready to move that far to the left.

Too much is made of Millennial progressivism. The ones in my little universe just want free college or their college loans forgiven.. The rest of the agenda doesn't stir nearly as much passion.in them.

37

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