According to a source at King 5 television who's seen a new election-eve SurveyUSA poll the station paid for, Mike McGinn is now running just two points behind Joe Mallahan in the Seattle mayor's race.

The poll, which has a roughly four-point margin of error, will be released at 5 p.m. today.

“It’s a toss-up now," the King 5 source said. "It’s a statistical dead heat."

Remember: just before the Aug. 18 primary, SurveyUSA significantly underestimated McGinn's strength, placing him last among the top three candidates (he ended up coming in first). Remember, too, that SurveyUSA only reaches voters with land-lines, and that some of McGinn's strongest support is among younger voters—who frequently only have cell phones.

My source at King 5 says the number of undecideds in the mayor's race remains "pretty high," so keep that in mind too. But if this poll is correct—or, just as importantly, if it's incorrect in the same way it was on Aug. 18—then McGinn could win this thing.

The poll will also have new data on the race for King County Executive—data that, the source said, "is pretty consistent with what everyone else is talking about. It seems to have opened up with Dow in the lead.”

Here's a question for the McGinn campaign to ponder this afternoon while we await the official poll results:

After trashing a University of Washington poll that put McGinn eight points behind last week (citing, among other things, the Washington Poll's erroneous primary predictions), will McGinn's people now do a victory dance while holding the results from the new SurveyUSA poll (which, as mentioned above, also made erroneous primary predictions)?