SurveyUSA released a poll today that shows Initiative 1098, which would create an income tax for people making over $200,000 a year, has 41 percent of voters certain that they will vote yes and 33 percent certain they will vote no. The rest are undecided. Republicans oppose the measure by a two-to-one margin. Obviously, this lead is small and could easily evaporate by November. If it does pass, however, it will raise over $1 billion annually for health care and education.

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Meanwhile, Tim Eyman's Initiative 1053, which would reinstate a law requiring a two-thirds majority of the state legislature to raise taxes—basically a guarantee that the legislature can't raise any tax—looks like it will pass easily. Fifty-five percent of likely voters say they support it, while only 18 percent are opposed. It has majority support from Dems and Republicans, men and women, tops and bottoms.

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And finally, I-1107—which would end the temporary sales tax on bottled water, soda, and candy—is leading with the support of 42 percent of voters while 34 percent say they would vote no. Most supporters of I-1107 are Republicans, self-identified conservatives, and supporters of the Tea Party movement. Combined with huge recent funding from the soda lobby, a misinformation campaign, big support from conservatives, and some support from handful of progressives angry that the legislature can't reform the state's regressive tax structure in the next 10 weeks or next session after the Eyman measure passes, I-1107 is almost certain to become law. The result will likely wipe out health care or education funding for thousands of poor people.

SurveyUSA polled 650 likely voters and the results have a 3.9 percent margin of error.

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