One of my favorite things about election season? Nate Silver. Last night, he put up a post looking at the problem with the current crop of Republican presidential candidates: None of them have exceptional likability scores. Silver goes through the last twenty years of presidential elections and sees a pattern: The people who wind up winning usually begin the contest with exceptionally high likability numbers, especially when compared to their unlikability numbers. Even the most obscure candidates—like Bill Clinton at the beginning of the 92 race—had a favorable ratio. This year's Republican crop is not doing so well on that front:


The problem with this field is that it'll be really hard for candidates to increase their likability, since they'll be playing to three distinct fields: The regular Republican party, the tea party, and moderate independents. If they try to shore up one demographic, they'll lose ground in at least one of the other two.