A new KING-5/SurveyUSA poll finds Democrat Jay Inslee maintaining a lead over Republican Rob McKenna in Washington's gubernatorial race. The survey of 540 likely voters finds Inslee leading 48 percent to 42 percent. Inslee led by a 49-44 margin in September.

I find this poll particularly significant because it shows no traction for McKenna despite a barrage of post-primary TV advertising. Both candidates' ads have been in pretty heavy rotation in recent weeks, and I was curious to see what sort of impact it might be having on voters. Apparently, not much.

What explains McKenna's woes?

Overall however, respondents said they see Inslee as the more “likeable” candidate by a 14-point margin.

Inslee is more likable, a natural advantage I think many observers underestimated earlier in the contest when the conventional wisdom was that this was McKenna's race to lose. But Dems shouldn't get overconfident. This is still going to be a close election—likely within 3 points—and there are still a lot of swing voters out there who labor under the delusion that McKenna is a different kind of Republican.