I like that statistic. Nice to see people using it. I most definitely am.
I think a variation on that paper title, "More is Different" by Prof. Anderson is "Everything reaches a point of diminishing returns". I believe after light rail is complete, ridership will peak then run steady depending on demographic changes in Seattle/King County. In Chicago, I recall seeing abandoned stations on the CTA. That indicated to me demographic changes in that neighborhood (less people were using that station thus it didn't warrant stopping there and probably at the time, an increase use of the car). We'll see how light rail fares. I hope car usage diminishes as a result.
In the meantime, it's wonderful that people are using it.
Who woulda a thunk, a train from an area where a large group of people who largely don't have cars live but has a lot of attractive destinations, to another area where a different large group of people live and also has a lot of attractive destinations, is popular!
Actually the entire point of Anderson's paper is that atomic arrangements break symmetry at a certain level that comes from the number of particles in the interaction being sampled. So far from "diminishing returns"–which is a relationship where there is a decaying function, i.e. with each additional length of track you get a decayed amount of new riders, until you hit some point where you have to add thousands of miles just to get one new rider– Anderson's paper has to deal with equilibrium rate equations, that is to say why does your ice melt into liquid and not stay at some half ice/half liquid undetermined concoction. Or why does your bread not decompose into sugars and proteins. Or why if you mix salt into a glass of water it dissolves.
What Charles is suggesting is that we are at a moment where the salt is dissolving and not sinking to the bottom. Where by adding just a few miles to a long line, you force the system to change it's natural equilibrium state- and quite forcefully towards a much higher carrying capacity.
Much like what has happened in other cities that built subways, the localized concept of what constitutes "the city" expands and therefore changes. Often this is manifest in the loss of neighborhood distinctions, as the freer flow of humanity across a larger area blurs arcane boundaries. New York City in the 20th century is the large scale example of this, with the individual boroughs and neighborhoods that were previously separate communities beginning to blend into the Big Apple. Now, there is a bit of a rebound against the blend, with hipsters trying to inject distinct personalities back into those smaller segments.
If the link between UW and Northgate were to open today, I don't think anyone in Seattle would be anti-light rail. Thus, speed up the 'speed up' plan, please. Disclaimer: I attend North Seattle College.
@2. We shouldn't have to wait. 5 *more* years, when the y're almost done with drilling, is a-b-s-u-r-d. At the very least they could consider staging the openings (UD>Roosevelt>Northgate) b/c every incremental stop will a) bring more users b) reduce car traffic meaningfully.
Would love to see a journalist compare the project schedule with similar projects elsewhere in the world. Even Bertha will be, start to finish, faster than the five years from now to Northlink opening.
Hoping ST has an "October surprise" of a big schedule breakthrough in the offing right before the election. Otherwise this schedule is nuts.
One other point that is worth considering and may require us to temper our enthusiasm somewhat: A lot of the new boardings at Husky are likely due to many north end buses (like the 73) no longer going downtown. So now Route 73 riders going downtown all take light rail, whereas this time last year, all those riders were taking the bus downtown.
In other words, that huge increase in ridership of the light rail probably includes a significant number of people who were using transit before the Husky station stop opened, they just weren't using light rial.
If we excluded all the people who are transferring from a bus to the light rail at Husky stadium, the increase in ridership absent those people would likely be significantly lower. I expect this would be true even if we adjusted for increased bus ridership on lines like the 73, because the transfer to light rail make the trip time more predictable (and at certain times of the day faster as well).
I'm sure there has still been a good bump, but it's not as high as that 79% figure might lead one to believe.
"There will be people who prehend it by Link (the deeper Seattle) and those who cannot."
AKA
There will be those with the money to ride light rail, and those without.
disappointing, Charles.
Agreed w/everyone about opening the 45th St station earlier. Their schedule is nuts and just adds to the perception that the ST planning folks either don't understand or don't like rail. They need to fast track (pun intended) the U-dist and Roosevelt stations. Not 5 yrs...next yr or soon after. Work 24/7 if needbe. Get this system up and running.
I like that statistic. Nice to see people using it. I most definitely am.
I think a variation on that paper title, "More is Different" by Prof. Anderson is "Everything reaches a point of diminishing returns". I believe after light rail is complete, ridership will peak then run steady depending on demographic changes in Seattle/King County. In Chicago, I recall seeing abandoned stations on the CTA. That indicated to me demographic changes in that neighborhood (less people were using that station thus it didn't warrant stopping there and probably at the time, an increase use of the car). We'll see how light rail fares. I hope car usage diminishes as a result.
In the meantime, it's wonderful that people are using it.
Actually the entire point of Anderson's paper is that atomic arrangements break symmetry at a certain level that comes from the number of particles in the interaction being sampled. So far from "diminishing returns"–which is a relationship where there is a decaying function, i.e. with each additional length of track you get a decayed amount of new riders, until you hit some point where you have to add thousands of miles just to get one new rider– Anderson's paper has to deal with equilibrium rate equations, that is to say why does your ice melt into liquid and not stay at some half ice/half liquid undetermined concoction. Or why does your bread not decompose into sugars and proteins. Or why if you mix salt into a glass of water it dissolves.
What Charles is suggesting is that we are at a moment where the salt is dissolving and not sinking to the bottom. Where by adding just a few miles to a long line, you force the system to change it's natural equilibrium state- and quite forcefully towards a much higher carrying capacity.
I didn't read Anderson's paper. Thanks for the explanation.
The title alone intrigued me. That's all.
It worked
The Ave, Roosevelt-and-65th, and Northgate stations are what's gonna really make this explode.
You could argue that opening the Husky Stadium station and not making sure they could open the Ave station with it was a very strange choice.
Would love to see a journalist compare the project schedule with similar projects elsewhere in the world. Even Bertha will be, start to finish, faster than the five years from now to Northlink opening.
Hoping ST has an "October surprise" of a big schedule breakthrough in the offing right before the election. Otherwise this schedule is nuts.
One other point that is worth considering and may require us to temper our enthusiasm somewhat: A lot of the new boardings at Husky are likely due to many north end buses (like the 73) no longer going downtown. So now Route 73 riders going downtown all take light rail, whereas this time last year, all those riders were taking the bus downtown.
In other words, that huge increase in ridership of the light rail probably includes a significant number of people who were using transit before the Husky station stop opened, they just weren't using light rial.
If we excluded all the people who are transferring from a bus to the light rail at Husky stadium, the increase in ridership absent those people would likely be significantly lower. I expect this would be true even if we adjusted for increased bus ridership on lines like the 73, because the transfer to light rail make the trip time more predictable (and at certain times of the day faster as well).
I'm sure there has still been a good bump, but it's not as high as that 79% figure might lead one to believe.
AKA
There will be those with the money to ride light rail, and those without.
disappointing, Charles.