car ownership will gradually return to its older status as a luxury for the rich rather than a necessity for plebeians.
Here I rather disagree. Without effective mass transit nearly everyone will have to own a car. TNCs & taxis are expensive. The plebians will keep their costs low by simply buying cheap second-hand cars, avoiding tabs and insurance as much as possible, and deferring maintenance. So we'll have increasing percentages of dangerously ill-maintained and uninsured cars cruising the roads.
We might see an increase of 'illegal', word-of-mouth "dollar vans
", like various communities have in NYC. But even with those, we'll still see more risky cars.
If this was a third-world country like Guatemala, where most people don't ever expect to own cars, sure private drivers would fill the transit needs for the many, especially outside the big cities. But the USofA has fierce, if illogical, senses of intertwined independence and car-ownership (as SB @19 handily demonstrates. (The racism is a coincidental correlation)), and our cities are structured to favor vehicles over walking. So as things decline car-ownership will likely remain a point of personal status & pride.
Bicycles are great, but most people aren't (yet?) prepared to use them to haul groceries or other bulky cargo home. Maybe someday, when the bicycle revolution is more complete...