Expect big changes in the television and cable industry soon. Last week, a federal appellate court ruling lifted the restrictions on the number of TV stations cable and media companies can own. You think AOL Time Warner is big now? (In fact, recently in the Wall Street Journal, AOL Chairman Steve Case said he would not rule out buying General Electric's NBC if he could.) This new court ruling, driven by FCC Chairman Michael Powell, son of Secretary of State Colin Powell, will set off a wave of corporate consolidation likely to be felt here in Seattle.

One local media company in particular, Fisher Communications (which owns Seattle's KOMO 4), will have a hard time staying "independent." Though Fisher isn't small--they own 12 network-affiliated TV stations and 26 radio stations--they're still independent. National companies already own the other two main TV stations in town, KING 5 and KIRO 7. The new court ruling makes it likely Fisher, one of the few local media companies remaining, will be gobbled up by national interests.

For one, Fisher is already vulnerable. They lost about $8 million last year and have had to sell real estate assets to make up for the loss. And like a lot of local media outlets, Fisher's Seattle TV channel, KOMO 4, is suffering big-time from losses in advertising revenue. If Fisher holds on and doesn't sell, they'll have a hell of a time competing.

If the conglomerates gain a bigger piece of the media pie in Seattle, by buying either KING 5 or KIRO 7, for example, Fisher will struggle to secure advertising and the hit TV shows that sell the ads. Fisher would be like City People's Mercantile competing against Wal-Mart. If Fisher does sell, expect any shred of local programming that we now have to go out the window.

Sure, losing local shows like Northwest Afternoon may not be anything to cry over, but it's the future we're talking about. KOMO 4 might want to take a risk and run local political debates, or a two-hour feature on the monorail (like KCTS Channel 9 did recently), but after KOMO is purchased by a huge media conglomerate, that would become next to impossible. Why would a huge media company in New York spend money on risky local programming in Seattle when they can just run the same syndicated shows all over the country? Well, you say, that's why there's cable--local TV sucks anyway. Guess again. The new ruling also paves the way for media companies to buy both TV stations and cable companies in the same market.

pat@thestranger.com