After another drop of new ballots from last week's mayoral primary, it remains almost certain that Cary Moon will make it through to the November election.
Moon, an urban planner, now leads Nikkita Oliver, a lawyer and educator, by 1,301 votes, down from yesterday's 1,362 votes. Both trail former U.S. attorney Jenny Durkan. Durkan now has about 27.9 percent of the vote, Moon 17.6 percent, and Oliver 16.9 percent.
Nearly all city ballots have been counted. Those that remain uncounted are mostly ballots with signature challenges plus a small handful of ballots mailed on Election Day but just now arriving, according to King County Elections. There are 1,625 outstanding signature challenges, but only about 50 percent of signature challenges are usually resolved and probably even fewer will be resolved this late in the process, says King County Elections Chief of Staff Kendall Hodson. The county only expects to count about 800 more ballots total, Hodson says. Oliver's campaign has been "ballot chasing," helping supporters whose ballots haven't been counted because they didn't sign or the signature didn't match the one the elections department has on file. In order to overtake Moon, nearly every single signature challenge would have to be resolved and they would all have to go for Oliver.
An automatic recount will be triggered if Moon’s lead over Oliver shrinks to .5 percent or less.
Moon has not yet declared victory and Oliver has not yet conceded. I'll update this post if that changes.