Not looking good for Seattles most successful purveyor of bean juice.
Not looking good for Seattle's most successful bean juice marketeer. Joshua Lott / GETTY IMAGES

A new analysis from Benenson Strategy Group given to Crooked Media shows that Howard Schultz couldn't win the presidency even if really wanted to.

The analysts, Katie Connolly and Joel Benenson, draw up a map that's as favorable to Schlutz as possible. (They also assume he could get on the ballot in all 50 states, which would be a feat in itself.) Even with a favorable map, Schultz still only gets 267 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. In that scenario, no candidate would secure enough votes to win the presidency, which would throw the decision to the House of Representatives. But, because we live under a tyranny imposed by small states, only one representative from each state would vote, which would give the majority to the Republicans and thus the presidency to Trump.

The group also concluded that Schultz would siphon off votes from Democrats in "battleground" states, which would ultimately lead to a Trump victory.

Michael Bloomberg—the former mayor of New York City and, um, person of wealth who has also considered running for president on an independent ticket—studied a third-party run in 2016 and probably saw similar numbers. He released this statement after the coffee magnate announced his potential run for office: "The data was very clear and very consistent. Given the strong pull of partisanship and the realities of the electoral college system, there is no way an independent can win. That is truer today than ever before."

Update 2/14: A spokesperson for Schultz dismissed the analysis, saying "any research based on past voting patterns between two candidates provides a false indicator." Citing "data from online panels conducted during Howard Schultz’s CNN Town Hall" and "recent research based on interviews with American voters," the spokesperson says the "desire for a third choice in 2020 is significant and growing." However, the analysis from Benenson includes all third party candidates going back to 1992—not just voting patterns between two candidates—so this isn't exactly a slam dunk response from Schultz's team.

At every stop along his damage control/publicity tour, Schultz tells the audience he won't run if the numbers prove him to be a spoiler. Well, the numbers have arrived, and everyone can see them. Schultz will throw the election to Trump if he runs. If he's really as humble as he constantly says he is, he'll do the right thing for the country and drop this vanity campaign.