The International Agency for Research on Cancer just declared cell phones “possibly carcinogenic”—in the same category as DDT, engine exhaust, and coffee. Do you think cell phones are more like DDT and engine exhaust, or more like coffee? Is my cell phone going to give me a brain tumor?

Almost all of the studies looking into a link between cell phone use and cancer are crap. This is acknowledged outright in the IARC declaration. Keep in mind: Often it’s easier to come to a solid conclusion with a small amount of high quality data rather than a mountain of crappy data. This declaration is based on a molehill of crappy data; prepare to lift a large grain of salt.

In fact, what’s most interesting is what the declaration says cannot be shown with all the available data: a link between cell phones and any common cancer. Exposure—even high-level industrial exposures—to microwave radiation like that made by cell phones cannot be associated with any cancer. The only link, in this molehill of crappy data, is between self-reported cell phone use and two rare cancers: gliomas and acoustic neuromas. There was no dose response between cell phone use and these cancers—with more cell phone use, there was not a proportionate increase in possible cancer risk. (Finding a dose-response curve is a key hint that a correlation is actually causation—that the first thing is causing the second.) The lack of such a relationship indicates this is a weaker association than things like DDT or engine exhaust.

The increase in risk for these two cancers—gliomas and acoustic neuromas—was only about 40 percent. In the United States, there are about 10,000 gliomas diagnosed each year; a 40 percent increase would bump that up to 14,000. Acoustic neuromas are even more rare: Only about 3,000 cases are diagnosed in the United States per year. By comparison, there are about a quarter million people diagnosed with lung cancer each year in the United States. Even if this link is true—that cell phone use causes these two rare cancers—only a handful of the hundreds of millions of people who use cell phones will be affected. In contrast, for something like vehicle exhaust that is associated with a common cancer (lung cancer), a similar increase in risk would affect an enormous number of people.

This declaration, while scary sounding, is not based on any new data—rather a very cautious new interpretation of the existing data, and a plea for continued monitoring. The risk, in absolute terms, is low. recommended

Send your science questions to
dearscience@thestranger.com.

Jonathan Golob is an actual doctor.

9 replies on “Dear Science”

  1. Yeah, but completely mis-representing the IARC conclusion is far more titilating. C’mon, those media outlets have a relentless 24-hour cycle to fill with “news”.

  2. And it’s so easy to take steps to ameliorate any risk: use a wired headset. Use the speaker phone. Text instead of call when you can – if your minutes are limited but your data is not, it’s cheaper that way. There’s no need to press the handset against your ear for protracted periods of time.

  3. As you say Jonathan,these types of cancers are SO rare, and their incidence isn’t increasing despite the fact that everydamnone in the known universe has a cell phone glued to his/her head… wouldn’t the incidence be going up if there was some sort of causative relationship? You’d think so…

  4. Today’s big news is all about cancer screening in the Economist.

    And the studies don’t say don’t screen, they just say it depends on risk factors, age cohorts, and what you’re screening for.

    Advice: sticking your head in an unlicensed nuclear reactor is fun.

  6. Thank goodness for you, Golob. Somebody really needed to write this and I was way too lazy, and would probably have done a crappier job, and would have had a circulation of about five people.

  7. This is a literacy issue. The people who read the study didn’t freak out, didn’t throw away their cell phones, we’re fine. The people who got their information from an illiterate media circus probably thought that their cell phones were the ONLY cause of cancer. It’s a real shame too, because while we have this conversation about carcinogenic cell phones and what the government should or shouldn’t do about it, the private sector is allowed to send into our air unlimited amounts of known pollutants that are 100% likely to cause cancer. I’m going to keep using my cell phone, and move as far away as possible from coal plants that aren’t regulated.

  8. It seems people are throwing the baby out with the bath water. The studies are inconclusive but IARC’s report points to our having yet once again introduced a new technology on a grand scale only based on its economic logic. Relying almost solely on the market to determine product compatibility with our health has proved more than once to be short sighted, perhaps it is time that we assess risk and/or issue warnings before billions of individuals become dependent on these technologies.

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