A new poll by the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) tells us what we were all hoping to hear: We have a real mayor’s race this year.
NPI, our local public opinion expert, ran a poll simulating a general election throw down between the two candidates who have raised the most in their campaigns so far: Transit Riders Union General Secretary Katie Wilson (at $256,318) and Mayor Bruce Harrell (at $390,585).
The top line is: in a poll of 522 likely voters, Wilson got 36 percent of the vote, Harrell got 33, and 30 percent remained undecided. I know it looks like Wilson has a solid lead, but technically, the margin of error is 4 percent, so it’s a statistical tie.
But it’s a tie! With two months left in the primary, Wilson is starting to give Harrell a run for his ($390k of) money.
The survey was done in two parts. First, they asked respondents to choose between Wilson and Harrell, and more than half of them (56 percent) said they weren’t sure. Harrell had the benefit of name recognition, with 25 percent, and Wilson got 18. But then NPI gave the undecided respondents another shot, providing excerpts of the candidates’ positions, and links to their campaign websites. After reviewing them, the tables turned. Among the undecideds, 34 percent said they’d vote for Wilson, 15 for Harrell, and 51 percent remained unsure. When combined, we get 36 percent for Wilson, and 33 for Harrell.
Harrell was clearly more recognizable to likely voters. But NPI’s polling also asked about his job performance, and Seattle just isn’t that into Harrell at this point. Only 37 percent of the city approves of his work, and 45 percent disapproves. When respondents were asked why they said they’d vote for Wilson, 10 of them simply said, “She’s not Bruce” or “She’s not Harrell.”
And Seattle has a unique relationship with incumbents. Anywhere else, being an incumbent gives you a substantial leg up. But Seattle tends to speed date our mayors. In the last 25 years, we’ve only given one mayor a second term—Greg Nickels, who only got it because he didn’t have a good challenger.
This poll is very early, and the number of undecideds shows that both candidates have a lot of work to do, and it could still be anyone’s race. “This race looks like it could go in multiple directions right now and could be one of the most exciting of this local election cycle,” said NPI founder and executive director Andrew Villeneuve in a statement.
The filing deadline was only two weeks ago, and while there’s still a lot of campaigning ahead of us, the race is starting to take shape. In a city without political parties, the closest thing we have is two major donor classes: labor and business. And so far, Harrell is sweeping the field. This week, the MLK Labor council, our county’s union of unions, endorsed Harrell. So has the CEO of the Seattle Chamber of Commerce, Governor Bob Ferguson, AG Nick Brown, Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, among many others.
But Wilson has momentum—and not just based on this poll. She qualified for the democracy voucher program in just five days, and is collecting endorsements from groups like the King County Democrats, the Transit Riders Union (duh), and progressives like former City Councilmember Tammy Morales.
We never learn.
“A new poll by the Northwest Progressive Institute…”
Pffffft.
Bruce Harrell is just a bad mayor. Of course, most of our mayors are bad. I liked McGinn, and way back Norm Rice seemed good. But if you look at every other mayor, you can easily see why none of them won reelection.
@3: Greg Nickels says hello.
Bruce will win by double digits – it won’t be close.
A Tammy Morales endorsement? Yuck.
I guess my vote is for Harrell. I don’t think he’s done a bad job. The city is cleaner than it was under Durkin, but that’s not saying much.
“…progressives like former City Councilmember Tammy Morales.”
Quitters never lose! 😉
@2: I love the statistical contortions required to justify the headline. May is too early for most voters to care about the August primary, and the poll and the poll accurately reflected that, so they fed those uncaring voters some information, which resulted in another undecided majority (!). From all this either the Stranger or the pollster wrangled a statistical tie, and the Stranger called it news. Whatever.
@5: So, this time, will the Stranger admit this ahead of Election Night, or will the Stranger again resist until reality bursts their Hoover Dam o’ Denial, and then treat us to another delightfully epic meltdown? (https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2021/11/03/62528438/five-takeaways-from-the-2021-seattle-elections)
Buddamat is right, regardless of what NPI’s snap in time says, Harrell is gonna win this race with close to 60%. Ditto wins for Davison and Nelson.
Of the three, Nelson should be the most vulnerable – stupid priority setting early on things no one but Chris Gregoire and the Chamber asked for (restaurant minimum wage repeal, repeal of our comically weak renter protections), rather than focusing on homelessness and public safety, which is how we got a traditional liberal council, rather than a batshit one. But there’s no juice in the candidate(s) taking her on.
Alexis may have no opponent, but don’t be The Stranger and misread the electorate again. This isn’t teeing up to be “Revenge of the Sawantistas”. If you’re gonna take on Bruce, you need a heavyweight and, whatever her merits, that’s not Katie. That would have been Tammy…who elected not to make the race, which is a pretty loud silence.
Buddamat is right, regardless of what NPI’s snap in time says, Harrell is gonna win this race with close to 60%. Ditto wins for Davison and Nelson.
Of the three, Nelson should be the most vulnerable – stupid priority setting early on things no one but Chris Gregoire and the Chamber asked for (restaurant minimum wage repeal, repeal of our comically weak renter protections), rather than focusing on homelessness and public safety, which is how we got a traditional liberal council, rather than a batshit one. But there’s no juice in the candidate(s) taking her on.
Alexis may have no opponent, but don’t be The Stranger and misread the electorate again. This isn’t teeing up to be “Revenge of the Sawantistas”. If you’re gonna take on Bruce, you need a heavyweight and, whatever her merits, that’s not Katie. That would have been Tammy…who elected not to make the race, which is a pretty loud silence.
@8 – Right
@9 – Right
It is weird that the MLK Labor Council refused to endorse an actual union leader.
@11 Katie Wilson is not a labor union leader. In fact a quick glance at her resume shows she has really never held a job, let alone one requiring labor.
Pretty accurate assessment.
That neither Tammy nor Teresa chose to challenge him suggests he will be pretty hard to beat. That I can’t think of many other far progressives with similar gravitas suggests the ‘21 election was not an anomaly.
@12 I think @11 is under the impression that being a “transit rider” is a job.
She’s endorsed by Tammy Morales?
Is this the same Tammy Morales who destroyed the International District and Little Saigon?
The same Tammy who grew homelessness at a rate so fast that Seattle became 3rd in the nation?
The same Tammy who defunded the police that kicked off a crime wave that disproportionately affect BIPOC neighborhoods?
The same Tammy who barely got reelected and then turned her back on voter, quit, and went back to her multi-million-dollar home and life of privilege?
If so, we’ve tried loser politicians already. Katie Wilson should run for Mayor of Portland. They are still enamored with shinney worthless things.