“When Gallup first asked about legalizing marijuana, in 1969, 12% of Americans favored it, while 84% were opposed,” says Gallup. “Support remained in the mid-20s in Gallup measures from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, but has crept up since, passing 30% in 2000 and 40% in 2009 before reaching the 50% level in this year’s Oct. 6-9 annual Crime survey.”
And now? It’s at 50 percent in favor of legalization to 46 percent opposed, the most support Gallup’s ever recorded:
- Gallup
Via AmericaBlog.
I would have thought it a higher number for support in legalization, but we’ll take it, just the same.
Legalize now!
too bad the AGOTUS is in the 46%.
And yet, it will not be legalized in our lifetimes.
Quick fun stats.
2011-2006: +14%
+2.3% per year
2006-2002: +5%
+1.25% per year
2002-2001: +3%
+1.5% per year
2001-1996: +6%
+1.2% per year
2011-2002: +19%
+2.11% per year
2011-1996:
+1.66% per year
It’s safe then to assume that support continues to grow from 1.66% to 2.3% per year. At most if you split the difference to account for the increased pace from the past 5 years, we can add another .5%. So round up and say 2.00% to 2.6% per year, if it keeps at the pace or accellerates.
In favor with such a projection, and assuming it doesn’t speed up even more…
2012: 52% to 52.6%
2013: 54% to 55.2%
2014: 56% to 57.8%
2016: 60% to 63%
2018: 64% to 68.2%
2020: 68% to 73.4%
2025: 78% to 86.4% (inverse of 1970 on the chart 55 years later)
2030: 88% to 99%+
Got War?
cause you can’t have lower taxes while fighting so many wars, including the War on MJ.
@5, but just think what the War on the War on Drugs will cost. We can’t afford that expense in this economy.
Joe @ 4 – Nate Silver predicted 60% legalization support by 2022 or so:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/02/a…
from an older look at the gallup results.
and if we lived in a democracy, this would mean something. but we don’t. the best chance we have at legalizing marijuana & ending the drug war are the continuous diet of budget cuts we are getting from the leadership class. that’s what ended prohbition, not reaon or the desires of the people. money rules.
But those 50% probably don’t fall in that very important “likely voter” category.
Still hopeful though!
the graph looks like a dick
@7 I’ve got nothing on stats when it comes to stats, but I’m guessing he didn’t take into account the growing pace (I don’t know if that’s a statistically sound thing to do, but it seems to make perfect sense).
Also, if you look at the breakdowns, on a geographic level, you’ll find the West has already gone heavily against the War on MJ, it’s just the tax-subsidized bottom feeders in the South and Center who are keeping America down.
what is the deal with 1977?
Joe @4 & 11,
While the longterm trend toward legalization is undeniable, I don’t think you can make much of your theory of accelerated change in opinion. The variable differences from one year to another may be due to sampling error. You need multiple polls or a long term trendline (which is what this is) to draw any real conclusions.
@13 the evidence is simply overwhelming (for those who are not blinded by dogma).
@14 – And notice the decline in opposition started exactly 18 years later…
1977 is probably an anomaly because of watergate fallout, 2002 because drugs funded the 9/11 terrorists or something.
Shit, or get off the pot.