A helpful addition to the data on the question of whether two-time gubernatorial loser Dino Rossi is really a threat to three-term incumbent Senator Patty Murray. (And an answer to a related question: Might three-term Republican Congressman Dave Reichert have a better shot at the seat?)
On the basis of the Rasmussen-driven narrative that Murray might be in danger if Rossi was to get into the race (as CQ Politics speculates, based on his meeting with NRSC chair Cornyn yesterday), we decided to have R2K poll the race. What R2K found? Patty Murray is the most popular Democrat in the state, with (contra Rasmussen) a 52 percent approval, and a 51 percent approval among all-important Independents. Only Obama is more popular with Washingtonians.
What’s more, she handily beats the leading conventional-wisdom contenders Rossi and Rep. Dave Reichert (WA-08).
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4%.
Patty Murray (D) 52
Dino Rossi (R) 41Patty Murray (D) 51
Dave Reichert (R) 43
Interesting.
So was this an old fogie landline poll?
@1: Yeah, probably. Though Daily Kos is usually better about that, you know, being the voice of a generation and whatnot. Haha.
I’m wondering, though, how does Murray vs. McKenna match up? How about McKenna vs. Gregoire? I’m just curious.
There is a 2% spread between Rossi and Reichert, and the margin of error is 4%. There is a 1% difference in how well Murray does against them, and the margin of error is 4%.
sssshhhhh! Maybe Reichert will be stupid enough to give up his current seat to go for the Senate.
@4 I thought the same thing but then also thought of Rossi as our next 8th Congressional Rep. Yikes!
@5 Please. We have a CPVI of D+3, Reichert’s looks, bearing, former profession and incumbency help keep him in place. Rossi, while represented well by yard signs, would have trouble getting elected, if he deigned to step down from the state level for the job.
However, among heterosexual Anglo Saxon property owners between the ages of 62 and 71, Rossi’s the man!
Murray delivers for the state. Even ‘baggers in Republic and Raymond recognize that. She’s not a rich fuck, and she’ll be in office till she decides she’s done.
Cantwell, though?
Might three-term Republican Congressman Dave Reichert have a better shot at the seat?
Maybe not…
Here’s a delicious scenario: Both Rossi and Reichert jump at the chance and run against each other in a GOP Senate primary. This opens up the 8th district seat. Rossi beats Reichert in the primary, then goes on to lose to Murray (or the other way around, doesn’t matter). Meanwhile, DelBene (moderate Democratic, backed by Microsoft money) beats some sacrificial Republican in the 8th.
So we go into 2012 with 7 of 9 seats in the state held by Democrats, and a nice new (probably competitive) 10th district just waiting for Obama’s reelection coattails. And that nitwit McKenna running for Governor against Inslee. It would be the final end of the GOP in Western Washington.
Also, to make the 10th competitive, the redistricting commission might have to include a chunk of conservative Eastern Washington (or swap that chunk for another Western WA district in exchange for a conservative-ish chunk wherever the new district goes in.) That means the remaining Eastern Washington districts will get comparatively less Republican, possibly enabling Democrats to become competitive again in the 5th (the Spokane/Tom Foley district.)
@10 – wait until you find out what’s going to happen in redistricting. It’s going to be even more fun than you think …