Chances are good that next October will be a tectonic echo of the Sonics' 1998-99 pre-season realignment, when the only key players to return from that previous year's squad were a contract-locked Vin Baker and point guard Gary Payton. Soon-to-be CEO Wally Walker and new owner Howard Schultz have promised that should Seattle fail to plant a banner in the first round of the playoffs--and this failure is all but certain now--the roster will undergo a gargantuan overhaul, complete with festooned bundle-trades and hard-cash shuffles to undercut the NBA salary cap. Given current management's decade-long history of botched acquisitions, coupled with the uncertainty of Schultz's grand vision for the team, it remains to be seen whether the organization has the muscle and the smarts to go after a player like, say, Sacramento's Chris Weber, who has hinted at an interest in coming to Seattle (only, that is, if Payton remains on the team). More interesting and important than any suppositions regarding potential transfusions of talent, though, is the question of who stays and who leaves--which existing players might go out with the old, and which ones will stay in with the new.With this very question in mind, I paid especially close attention to the various lineups and player combinations that Coach Nate McMillan rotated in during last Monday night's blowout against Cleveland. Seeing as the Sonics have been on a steady tear lately, winning eight of the last nine games, any success they've been having on the floor--in the way of chemistry, cohesion, and teamwork--should carry over into off-season decisions regarding the future of the team's composition. For example, the fact that backup point guard Shammond Williams has been seeing so little post-All-Star-break playing time probably tells us that Shammond--a no-fit looking for a starring role--is gone. Ditto Patrick Ewing, but for different reasons; he came to Seattle exclusively for a shot at a championship ring. It's been nice having him around, but it will be equally nice having that extra space under the salary cap.

The lineup that completely dismantled the Cavaliers was the one that was on the floor midway through the second period: guard Brent Barry, Payton switching between post-up and point, Rashard Lewis and Ruben Patterson at the forward positions, and Baker filling in at center. Excepting Baker, this formidable combination could conceivably constitute the core of the Sonics roster next season: quick, lean, smart, tough, with plenty of scoring threat from both inside and out, albeit a bit height-disadvantaged. All that's needed to complete the equation is a power forward/center who delivers where Baker, unfortunately, has not with any consistency. Ironically, Seattle's recent string of victories can be credited in large part to Baker's viciousness on defense. Has this been the only missing factor? If Baker had been playing this kind of defense all season, rebounding and squelching movement inside the paint, it wouldn't matter that he'd fallen down offensively. As it is, he's too far gone, with too much nasty baggage, to stick in Seattle.

And so here's the hitch: In order to land a quality big guy, the Sonics will be tempted to cobble together a Baker-Patterson trade, thereby busting up the best lineup they have going. During the Cleveland game, eight-and-a-half minutes into the third quarter, Patterson subbed in with the Sonics ahead 61-56. When he subbed out six later, Seattle was up 77-63. That's what Ruben does. Because Patterson is a restricted free agent next year, Seattle can and absolutely should hold him for upward of his $4.5 million extension. It's almost as important as keeping Payton around, and only slightly less important than dumping Baker. Schultz and Walker need to get fancy to deal Vin, but not that fancy.

rick@thestranger.com