Since May, Mayor Bruce Harrell has deployed attack ads, hitched his wagon to a progressive tax proposal, and shouted at the The Stranger’s endorsement board, but so far, it seems like it’s too little too late: a new poll from the Northwest Progressive Institute found that Harrell and Katie Wilson are still neck and neck in this race.

The poll, based on interviews with 651 likely primary voters, found that when voters were given the information in the King County Voters Pamphlet, 35 percent said they would vote for Wilson, compared to 33 percent that said they would vote for Harrell. When they simulated a general election with the two candidates, 43 percent went for Wilson, and only 39 percent for Harrell.

The margin of error for this poll is 4.1 percent, so statistically, the two candidates are tied.

What might be more important, though, is where each candidate has room to grow. Andrew Villeneuve, the executive director of NPI, sees Harrell’s incumbency as a disadvantage in this election. Seattle is always looking for fresh blood (we haven’t reelected a mayor since Greg Nichols in 2005), and this year is no different. Harrell’s approval rating is 35 percent, but his disapproval rating is a whopping 44 percent. Wilson’s disapproval rating is only 18 percent, and 48 percent of the respondents didn’t have an opinion on her, which means she has so much more room to win over voters in the general election.

Typically an incumbent would hope to be close to 50 percent at this point in the race, Villeneuve said in a press conference Monday morning. "[Harrell] is in a race for his political life," Villeneuve said. "This is one of the most exciting mayoral races I've ever seen."

Harrell’s campaign has clearly noticed how tight the race is, and they’re starting to go negative. A press release from the campaign two weeks ago claimed that Wilson was “flip flopped” because she declined to endorse Kshama Sawant’s run for Congress, and claimed she was trying to “mislead Seattle voters and make her extreme views palatable to the general public.” And last week, they sent out a mailer that went after her previous endorsements of Sawant and her support for plans to cut police budgets. And while, thanks to the Democracy Voucher Programs spending limits, they’re tied in fundraising, the pro-Harrell PAC’s fundraising has already passed $275,000.

Wilson has campaigned with a huge focus on affordability: of rent, childcare, and a slice of pizza. The Stranger asked NPI’s Villeneuve if the results showed that her affordability-focused messaging was resonating with voters. “Yes, focusing on affordability has definitely helped Katie,” he said. He noted that a handful of voters mentioned affordability as one of the central reasons they would vote for her, “but campaigning on lowering Seattleites' costs is not the only reason why she's competing well right now. Wilson's supporters say she brings good political instincts to the table and has a track record of getting results.”

Villeneuve pointed to one person who was surveyed—a Black woman between 39 and 49 years old with a graduate degree who  lives in Georgetown—as a good example of Wilson’s appeal. "Katie has worked with so many community partners and leaders,” she wrote. “She is a critical thinker and she is able [to] make a plan and mitigate harm. She is trustworthy because her actions and words match. She understands the challenges the city has and the opportunities to utilize existing resources to help communities and she is thoughtful about progressive revenue. She applies a racial equity lens and she is a strong advocate for renters, anti-displacement, inclusive zoning, [good] jobs and reliable transportation. She knows these investments lead to real public safety... She won't lead with hostility and that tone will improve jobs for city staff."

When reached for comment, the Harrell campaign pointed to “tariff-driven inflation impacting household budgets” as one of his headwinds in the campaign, and emphasized the same notes that are in his negative mailers: Wilson's previous endorsement of Sawant, her support for cutting police budgets, and her opposition to sweeps. “We knew this would be a challenging race,” Harrell said. 

Wilson took an understated victory lap. “This poll shows what I and our hundreds of campaign volunteers already know from talking with voters across the city: so many people are ready for change,” Wilson told The Stranger. “They know we can’t afford another four years of visionless leadership that puts wealthy interests ahead of everyday working people.”

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to include comment from the Harrell Campaign.