EVEN RON SIMS’S campaign manager admits that Sims’s third run for King County Executive is unlikely to be as charmed as his first two. Hailed for his record-setting margin of victory when he first won the post in 1997, and described in the press as “a political colossus” during his second run in 2001, Sims, a Democrat in a Democratic county, is now being dogged by a “vulnerable” label.

“Third terms are always hard,” says Rachel Bianchi, Sims’s campaign manager, trying to dampen expectations. “You’ve been there for two terms, you have a record.” That may be, but it’s not just the passage of time that has Sims’s opponent, Republican King County Councilman David Irons, justifiably feeling more confident than past Sims challengers.

Sims’s trouble in righting the much-maligned King County Elections Division, the failures of which drew nationwide attention during the disputed 2004 governor’s race, will allow Irons to, as he put it, demonstrate Sims’s “lack of experience in knowing how to manage and lead.” The two-term councilman, whose own leadership experience is debatable, will also try to exploit controversial moves by Sims on transportation and rural preservation, and says recent poll numbers show voters are feeling tepid about another Sims term.

But it will be surprising if Irons, with little countywide name recognition and far less money than Sims, is actually able to capture the 52 percent that pollsters have said could go to a moderate Republican this time around. With this in mind, political observers have been wondering why Republicans were not able to field a more formidable candidate, although they differ on whether this failure speaks to a missed opportunity or Sims’s strength. Either way, as one Democratic observer put it, Irons should keep in mind that while he might be a stronger challenger than Sims has had in past races, “that’s not saying very much.”

Sims says that whether he has to run mainly against Irons or his own record, he plans to win. And, he said, “I don’t mind earning it.”

Eli Sanders was The Stranger's associate editor. His book, "While the City Slept," was a finalist for the Washington State Book Award and the Dayton Literary Peace Prize. He once did this and once won...