In just seven months, America will hold the most consequential midterm elections in recent memory. But if past trends hold, notes The New York Times‘ David Leonhardt, about two-thirds of eligible voters will sit these midterms out.
Maybe past trends won’t hold this year. Who knows. But for those who want to get nonvoters to finally show up and cast a ballot, there’s always a nagging question: What is going on in their minds?
A recent poll by USA Today and Suffolk University set out to provide some answers to this question, and they are fascinating, contradictory, and full of opportunity for the right politician. (Who, according to the poll, just might be Joe Biden. Or maybe Bernie Sanders.)
Of the poll’s 800 nonvoting respondents, the overwhelming majority are white. Elderly Americans are well represented, but so are all other demographic groups. (With under-34s making a particularly strong showing.)
Almost 56 percent of these nonvoters think the country is on the “wrong track.” The most common word or phrase they associate with the name “Donald Trump” is “Idiot/Jerk/Jackass.”
“They say that the country’s most important problems include: political gridlock, the economy, health care, education and immigration,” Leonhardt writes in his analysis of the poll’s findings. “Those subjects were mentioned more frequently than guns, terrorism, taxes or Trump.”
Further, among those who are registered to vote, most would vote for a Democrat rather than Trump if a presidential election were held today.
Opportunity!
Except, when asked what it would take to get them to actually vote, the most common answer was “No/None/Nothing/Not interested.”
Before you throw up your hands, that answer was closely followed by “Better candidate/Better Choices.”
A similar phenomenon emerged when poll respondents were asked who would actually get them to show up at the polls in a presidential race. The overwhelming answer was “No/None/No one”—followed by “Bernie Sanders.”
Okay, so of the nonvoters who could actually be inspired to vote: How would any of them even know if their wished-for “better candidate” were to someday appear? Just how much attention are these Americans paying to what’s going on in the political world?
Close to 45 percent either don’t know or “refused” to answer when asked the name of the Vice President.
They said television was their primary source of news (followed by social media, with print newspapers or magazines a distant third), and rated their most trusted news source as FOX. But they also reported that they trust Anderson Cooper more than Sean Hannity.
Most have a college degree or higher, don’t own a gun, and aren’t invested in the stock market.
They overwhelmingly feel the federal government plays an important role in their lives and are done with the two-party system. But while they think a third party is necessary, the vast majority disagree with the statement that “There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between Democrats and Republicans.”
They also strongly believe citizens should have to show ID before voting (a full 74 percent supported this idea) while, at the same time, acknowledging (59 percent) that voter ID laws have discouraged people from voting.
And: the vast majority say religion is “somewhat” or “very” important in their lives.
If that all seems like a complicated picture, consider what these folks hold in esteem.
The poll asked them whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of a bunch of individuals and institutions, and here are the nonvoter esteem rankings:
1) The FBI (54 percent favorable)
2) Joe Biden (47 percent favorable)
3) Bernie Sanders (44 percent favorable)
4) Donald Trump (34 percent favorable)
5) Hillary Clinton (30 percent favorable)
6) The News Media (29 percent favorable)
7) US Congress (24 percent favorable)
If you’re still feeling optimistic after all that, Leonhardt argues that “one of the most consequential things that could happen in American politics would be finding a way to inspire even a small fraction of nonvoters to start voting.”
Good luck, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and anyone else who thinks they can crack this code!
