Is the Life Expectancy of Trans Women in the U.S. Just 35? No.



I've tried to back-of-the-envelope this one a few times. Even accepting the arguments as-is, the death rate of black trans women (of which I estimate roughly 125,000 in this country) has a murder rate of 19.6 per 100,000. The murder rate of black men in America is nearly twice as high, 34.7

But of course, that's a taboo topic, because even though it's bad, Trump brought it up, so we must ignore it. Right?


Authorization denounces propigated murder statistic while refusing to offer a correct and fact checked statistic. Seems specious to me.

I came "out" around my 40th birthday. Perhaps the original statistic is based upon time spent as a visible trans person. That actually seems much more logical. Of course I don't believe for a second that I'll make it to 75, but it would be nice.


It’s actually really difficult to estimate numbers like this because we don’t have an accurate count of the total trans population, and transgender identity is expanding so the population is still maturing. This same phenomenon led people to falsely believe left-handed people have a lower life expectancy; the estimate is technically correct, but it’s lower because prior to the mid-1900s kids were not allowed to use their left hand, and the newly emerging population of lefties aren’t old enough to die of old age.

That said, if you can’t cite a better estimate than this one, you don’t know that it’s wrong. The error isn’t that people are citing it but that they are not qualifying it with the necessary caveats — which is, perhaps, a lot to expect of people who never verified their sources in the first place.


You miss the point and then backpedal into parenthesis.
Is this journalism?? You're feigning sympathy.
Tell us some more about alexis arquette
Who didnt discover herself as a woman until after she had garnered a career in her born body.
Cast out and her final IMDB role listed is as a "she male". Have some fucking respect.
You go these statistics are only quantifiable in this arrangement! As you dribble out a diatrible about how the murder rate is not that bad! Transfolx are .06% and that number 29 for 2017 is alot. Thats not even considering the trans people who died that had their identities disrespected post mortem. The age range of the statistic is not the point, the point is we harness respect of these people in their communities and give them space to thrive and be authentic AND FEEL SAFE.
Before some person calls them a liar for being & presenting their true selves and end up dead in a street.


Who’s killing all these black transgender women?


I'm with @4, it is valid to point out problems with the statistic but without a firm counter factual it can't be disproven either, to wit many trans persons take their own lives and their families use their birth gender upon time of death so they arent recorded as their true selves. It's only through connection to the community that we know of these deaths, it's why TDOR is so important. Now I know my position cant be quantified and backed up with hard data some of it is anecdotal but take it from my community, our life expectancy is lower than yours, we walk down the street wondering if it will be us this time, it was community knowldedge long before Patricia Arquette decided to mouth some statistic that you felt the need to refute. it's not techinically whataboutism but it really is a contrarian and tiring point you insist on making. optically at the expense of a very vulnerable community. I think you have written some really great stuff katie but sometimes my head just hits my desk.


This statistic is only valid on the planet Mars.


@3 that's totally disingenuous, since the trans community has largely fought against any and all attempts to demogrify them - there is no such thing as a fact-checked statistic.


@3 and @4, an accurate statistic might be interesting (and I'm sure it is shockingly low,) but the problem with the 35 number isn't just that it isn't factually cited, it's that it's mathematically absurd. There's just no way to make the numbers work. Life expectancies are thought to have been that low in certain pre-industrial societies, but that's because most people didn't make it out of infancy. Even when most people didn't make it to adulthood, the actual life expectancy statistic was still in the 40's and 50's.

The issues the people using this statistic are trying to highlight are important and tragic, but using an obviously wrong statistic helps no one.


Wow. No Herzog bashing, yet.


Katie is like one step away from TERF-bombing tf out of this rag. Everytime I see a story about trans folks on this blog its pretty much guaranteed to be written by Katie and has the tone of WELL ACTUALLY, and then proceeds to tear down a vulnerable population under the guise of some sort of sympathetic (yet pointedly always arguing AGAINST trans points)that makes me wonder how much Katie is an ally of the community. I unfortunately keep coming down on the side of that she is against us, and I have yet to see her make a semantic argument in support of the community, only try to argue against some perceived slight at her womanhood or how somehow we have misrepresented ourselves. Seems like some white queer woman's need to low key cast doubts on us and our reliability with facts (cant trust a tranny amirite?). KATIE, WHAT THE FUCK IS YOUR POINT ON HARPING ON TRANS CULTURE, YOU DO NOTHING TO LIFT IT UP EVER, ONLY TEAR IT DOWN OR MAKE SOME INSIGNIFICANT ARGUMENT LIKE THIS THAT FURTHERS NOTHING AND BRINGS NO REAL INSIGHT OR NUANCE. I really am starting to think you have something against us and that you are a closeted unaware transphobe. This actually one of the last times I will probably read this blog, and tbh its mostly Katie running me off as a reader, I honestly do not feel welcome as reader by you anymore. So thanks for that.



Black men.


The “transgenderism movement”?? Get a clue dude. What side of history do you wanna be on? Your mom still washing your lil confederate-print undies? Did she get ur hood all bleached, ready for the next rally? You disgust me bro.

Take it from a trans woman, Katie Herzog doesn’t know shit about us, and throws us under the bus any chance she gets. Nitpicking the most ridiculous instances, labeling the statistic “FAKE” and playing directly into the lexicon of rightwing fascism, this supposed journalist truly does not understand the toxicity of her language nor does she appreciate how her single-minded pursuit against transgender women encourages the sorts of ignorance you see gallivanting about this comment thread, and in the world at large.

Yeah, that statistic is probably fucked, but you know what’s more fucked? Being a pillar of support to the tides of ignorance rising all around us. Girl, I’ve never been so disappointed in you. Be better.


@15 Says the lady who went full Milo Yiannopoulos and defended boy-fucking....

“a horny 15 year old fucking some older guy consensually is just not the same thing as some genuine creep .... “

Seek help. For all your problems.


the original report came out dec 2014 but dear katie was too high of the pie to notice. frown. shame. dissatisfaction. in context the line is pretty clearly a flub but who cares if it makes a zazzy headline then another zazzy 'corrective' headline. put down the pies katie, or should i say, katlie for the effective lie about 2015. lazy. underside of a bro cross.


The general population is roughly 3X’s more likely to be murdered than a trans person. The number of trans women murdered simply for being trans is likely much lower.

Roughly 90% of trans people murdered are Black. Who do you think is murdering them? Statistically, it’s Black men.

The only studies I have ever found on castration are studies on dogs. The findings are interesting. A castrated dog is less likely to die a violent death, more likely to live longer, and more likely to die from cancer.

The reason I point this out is because there are no long term studies on the social, and physiological effects on male body castration. Now we certainly aren’t dogs, but there is a predisposition of both intact male dogs and intact males to violence.

Intact dogs Die at much higher rate violent deaths than castrated dogs.

The reason for higher rates of cancer is likely that the longer the dog lives the more chances they have to get cancer.

What’s my point? It’s a great time in America to be trans, generally. Many of the ills have more to do with the trans individual, not society. Trans people have to take responsibility for their individual lives.

Curious how long my post will stay up.


~7 That’s not the way it works. The claim is 35. Prove it! No one has to disprove a fucking thing.

~12 “...vulnerable population”? Speak for yourself. You want to be the pillar of suffering, have at it, don’t drag me into your victimhood.


the statistic wasn't pulled from an ass it was a misstatement in a paper obviously not written by a first-language english speaker and is clairified (albeit not corrected) in context but you have to read more than a few sentences to get that context. herzog (a bad person) doesn't want you to read the original report or look at the data set because she's a bad person and also because arcus foundation has long helped fund the iachr and she doesn't want to address how philanthropy is a mass hypnosis scheme and how these reports are funded.


wow. is it already that time of the week where we band together and call katie a TERF for believing that you can't use false information in journalism just because it furthers your cause. I'll see you all next week when we call katie a bigot for cruelly insisting that free speech rights should protect you from losing your job when you made an insensitive joke at age 15 in 1998.


~2 I’ve been called a TERF many times. I’m a transsexual. Fuck the whiners of the trans world.


It seems the author can't go a week without riding her favorite hobby horse. It's a shame.


I enjoy how Katie gives the alt-right more control over their own narratives in her articles than she does trans people.


Trans women have HALF the murder rate of any male or female in U.S.

Facts matter. Everyone deserves life, liberty and pursuit of happiness.


I've read that the average age for TW to transition in the US is 38. Are the bodies being kept in mortuary drawers for several years? I think we should be told.

Here is Alexis Dinno in the American Journal of Public Health. He finds that white TW in the US are safer from homicide than others. Black TW in the sex trade are murdered at a high rate. But since they don't die in pregnancy or childbirth, they are at far less risk than black women in any profession. You'd think they would be dancing in the street to celebrate.


@5 It’s important when we discuss any issue that we be working with accurate data. Trying to use an easily disprovable “fact” like the one Herzog cited does real harm to your cause. If you are obviously misleading me about life expectancy, what else are you deceiving me about? Why should I trust anything you have to say?

@15 You sharpen your arguments in order to make them more persuasive. A true supporter of trans rights will help ensure that the arguments we advance are as factually and logically sound as possible.

You’re arguing for sloppy arguments that offer the real enemies of trans people ammunition.

@17, 22 Good grief! That was some Trumpian word salad. Do you smell burnt toast? You may be having a stroke.



@25 it's the arcus foundation having stroke - a stroke of luck that it can help fund papers containing bad writing that remain effectively unread even as they are chastised and celebrated, as it advances a nefariousness agenda to hypnotize humans into self-castration!


in #31 i meant to @ #29, not #25. apologies. but #25 should think about who benefits by bad reading and writing, too!