The race to flip Washington's 3rd Congressional District blue remains pretty tight as voters continue returning ballots in record numbers across the state.
A new poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee conducted earlier this week shows Carolyn Long in a statistical tie with Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler. Long trails the incumbent by two points in a survey of 425 "likely general election voters." The poll has a 4.9% margin of error.
The DCCC's poll also shows Joe Biden up two points in the district, leading the President 45 to 43, which may represent an improvement since September. A GQR poll from late last month showed the same results in the Congressional race, but it had Trump one point ahead of Biden.
Around this time two years ago, when Long first challenged JHB, internal polls actually showed Long up a couple points, but she ended up losing the 2018 general by nearly six points.
Long's campaign hopes high turnout will lead to a better outcome this year, but ballot returns are looking high all over the district, particularly in the Republican stronghold of Lewis County, where JHB retained a lot of support that helped lead her to a six-point victory in the August primary.
"This poll illustrates that the incumbent is vulnerable and unable to clear 50 percent," said Long's spokesperson. "Momentum is on our side, with the strength of our grassroots campaign. Carolyn can win."
Yesterday the prognosticators over at The Cook Political Report moved the district from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican," which feels....accurate.