Yeah wow not lookin as pretty as election night.
Yeah wow not lookin' as pretty as election night. DAVID MCNEW/GETTY

Though the country's future will likely remain miserably, nightmarishly, doomscrollingly unclear until early January, the futures of candidates in Washington state became a little clearer after this afternoon's ballot drop.

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With an estimated 230,000-ish ballots left to count—with an emphasis on "estimated," as the Secretary of State's office compiles this number from county estimates, which sometimes don't include mail votes that arrived after election day—the red-shifting trends we noticed yesterday are carrying through to today.

Let's take a look:

• Again, everything that was passing in King County on election night is passing today. Harborview is still safe at 76.5%, transit is still safe at 80.4%, and we're all still saying yes to the charter amendments—5 and 6 lead by 11.5 points and 24 points, respectively, which represents another rightward shift.

• U.S. Congresswoman Kim Schrier maintains her lead over a generic Republican in the 8th Congressional District, 52.3% to 47.6%. Sorry dorks, it's a moderate blue district now.

• Meanwhile, down in the 3rd Congressional District, yesterday Carolyn Long conceded her second race against GOP incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler, and today you can really see why. With around 20,000 votes left, JHB increased her lead over Carolyn Long to 11.7 points, thanks to large Republican turnout in Clark, Lewis, and Cowlitz counties. The loss wasn't for lack of trying on Long's part. Compared to 2018, Long improved her numbers in all three of those counties, but these Republicans came out of the woodwork.

• Yesterday Washington Dems were on track to pick up a seat in the Senate and two in the House. Today, that's looking less certain in both cases. If current trends hold, Senate Dems are on track to break even or lose a seat and also retain a more conservative member, which is arguably bad news for transit, climate, and progressive taxation. House Dems will likely gain a seat. Both chambers still enjoy large majorities.

• Democratic challenger and University Place School Board member T'wina Nobles still leads Republican State Sen. Steve O'Ban, though today that lead cut in half to 1.6 points. Yesterday she led him by 3.2 points. The SOS estimates 5,000 votes left to count in Pierce County, and only a touch over 1,000 votes separate these two.

• Former Island County Commissioner Helen Price Johnson now trails Republican State Sen. Ron Muzzall by 307 votes after establishing nearly a two-point lead on election night. She only led him by half a point yesterday. Got about 750 votes left in Island county.

• Over in the 5th LD: Overlake Hospital nurse Ingrid Anderson now trails DINO incumbent State Sen. Mark Mullet by 18 votes. She was up 415 votes yesterday and nearly 1,000 on election night. Unions spent over $1 million trying to put Anderson in this seat, but the vote keeps shifting steadily to the right all over the state. I would just like to congratulate the fine people of the 5th on probably electing a living roadblock to moderate climate change legislation, affirmative action, and progressive taxation.

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• In the House, up in the 10th LD Democrat Angie Homola leads Republican Greg Gilday by half a point, down from 1.2 points yesterday. Democrat Dave Paul maintains his lead over Trumpy Republican Bill Bruch, 51 to 49.

• Down in the 17th LD, Democratic challenger Tanisha Harris's 1.25-point lead over Republican Rep. Vicki Kraft dropped to a half-point deficit. Kraft now leads by 482 votes.

• Up in the 42nd LD Democrat Alicia Rule maintains her 2-point lead over Republican incumbent Luanne Van Werven, with only a couple hundred votes left.

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