A late-March poll from Lorena Gonzalez's campaign showed a tie between her and Bruce Harrell: In a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of "400 likely 2021 primary voters," the current and former presidents of the Seattle City Council that everyone supposedly hates led the mayoral race. With a five-point margin of error, Harrell and Gonzalez basically tied at 20% to 19%, respectively, with about 40% undecided. After survey-takers read "balanced introductions" of all the candidates, Gonzalez beat Harrell 31 to 26, with 17% undecided. In general, voters saw Harrell more favorably than Gonzalez—he was 22 points above water (34%/12%), and she was 16 points above water (37%/21%) with a higher name ID. Meanwhile, Colleen Echohawk and Jessyn Farrell took 9% and 6% percent of the initial vote, respectively, and then 14% and 7% after introductions.
Some of those results conflict with a mid-May internal poll from Farrell's camp: According to a poll memo from ALG Research, Gonzalez's favorability was three points underwater (31% favorable/34% unfavorable). That poll also only gave her 11% of the initial vote share before introductions.
Without being able to see full versions of both polls, it's hard to understand why Farrell's poll showed Gonzalez with a much lower favorability rating and a lower place in the horse race. Farrell's poll included Deputy Mayor Casey Sixkiller and architect Andrew Grant Houston, but Gonzalez runs well to the left of Sixkiller, and her poll included a "someone else" category that may account for some of that difference. Though Farrell's poll showed that 46% of likely voters think the city is on the "wrong track," a spokesperson for Gonzalez's campaign said their poll showed 51% of likely voters think the city is on the "wrong track," so it doesn't seem like people are conflating Gonzalez with the rest of the city.
Like Gonzalez's poll, Farrell's showed both she and Echohawk statistically tied for third. Farrell's camp argued that the candidate's net favorability and relative outsider status suggests she's got room to grow if people hear her message, but Gonzalez's poll puts that room to grow very low, at least after only hearing a "balanced introduction." Will Casey, a spokesperson for the Farrell campaign, called Gonzalez's data "irrelevant." He added, "It's from two moths ago when two of the leading candidates in the race had only been declared for about a week. They polled 100 fewer voters than we did. And if they want to go back into the field right now and produce some relevant data that shows something different than what we found then we welcome them to."
The point is that right now it's Bruce Harrell's race to lose.
If you want to start picking up gay mags for Pride: Check out the hot new Pride shop at Big Little News.
Jasmyne went on Week in Review: She joined Ross Reynolds, Joni Balter and Kevin Schofield for a little chat about Sawant's legislation to prevent the evictions of families with kids, “Compassion Seattle," and the AIDS Memorial Pathway. Tune in and crank it up!!!!
Three of the cops charged in Manny Ellis's killing pleaded not guilty: The three cops—"Christopher 'Shane' Burbank, Matthew Collins, and Timothy 'Timmy' Rankine"—turned themselves in and showed up to the arraignment from jail though a remote video feed, the Seattle Times reports. More background on the details of the killing here.
In today's episode of Seattle Is Dying: Our medium-sized gardening village now beats Manhattan "as the top spot for foreign investment in American commercial real estate," according to the Seattle Times. "Investors from other countries spent about $2.5 billion on commercial real estate in Seattle over the last four quarters." The reason? Tech tenants, baby.
If the Bothell Police Department calls you and asks for money: Don't give it to them. It's a scam, KING 5 reports.
Alright, I'll give it to 'em for the headline: "2 moose on the loose" blocked traffic on I-90 out in Spokane County earlier today, KIRO 7 reports. The road is clear now. Drive tenderly.
I-90 is currently CLOSED in both directions to try and move the two moose away from I-90 near the Appleway interchange. Expect delays through the area. https://t.co/43SyjIFUaS
— WSDOT East (@WSDOT_East) May 28, 2021
54 to 35: Sixty U.S. Senators needed to vote in favor of breaking the Republican filibuster of a bill to form an independent commission to fully investigate the origins of the Jan 6 insurrection, but the chamber could only rustle up 54 votes, the New York Times reports. WA Sen Patty Murray and AZ Sen. Kyrsten Sinema skipped the vote; Murray blamed “a personal family matter,” but Sinema hasn't explained her absence. Nine Republicans also skipped the vote, which ultimately sank the deal. The independent commission would have fully laid out the connections between members of Congress and the people who broke into the Capitol building in an attempt to overthrow a democratic election.
Whiplash: In this morning's Slog AM, Mudede wrote about Idaho's Trumpian Lt. Governor banning masking requirements in a state that never required masking in the first place. This afternoon, the slightly less Trumpian Governor returned to town and rescinded her ban, effectively banning her ban on a banning that never even happened, the Washington Post reports. The Lt. Gov is running against the Gov, so this is just what Republican politics is going to be from now on.
"A 'flagrant breach' in security practices related to US nuclear weapons stationed in NATO countries:" That's how Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, describes this jaw-dropping story from Bellingcat about U.S. soldiers exposing mountains of nuclear secrets after uploading sensitive information they needed to memorize to a publicly visible flashcard app. The information confirmed that the U.S. is holding nukes in European countries, revealing "not just the bases, but even... the exact shelters with 'hot' vaults that likely contain nuclear weapons." Bellingcat continues: "They also detail intricate security details and protocols such as the positions of cameras, the frequency of patrols around the vaults, secret duress words that signal when a guard is being threatened and the unique identifiers that a restricted area badge needs to have. "
U.S. repatriates two intricately carved, 10th Century sandstone support beams to Thailand: Some people stole the gorgeous lintels during the American war in Vietnam, and they were eventually kept on display at San Francisco's Asian Art Museum. The National Museum in Bangkok will now display the beams, the BBC reports.
Four more dead in Colombia protests: An "agent of the attorney general’s investigative unit opened fire on civilians, before also being killed" earlier today, bringing the total number of dead protesters in the country to 17, Al Jazeera reports. What began as demonstrations over a tax hike on the poor and middle classes has now turned into a much larger movement for basic income and an end to police violence. Despite the rising death toll, protesters have vowed to remain in the streets.
Guess what the Sunrise kids are doing for Memorial Day weekend: Earning their freakin' steps is what.
BREAKING: 7 young people in Sunrise California begin 266 mile march from Paradise to San Francisco for climate justice and the #civilianclimatecorps #generationonfire #greennewdeal pic.twitter.com/kFel2I5HPr
— Generation on Fire 🔥 (@smvmtgenonfire) May 28, 2021