The city council and mayoral candidates reported their latest fundraising numbers yesterday. The council candidates all raised between about $6,000 and $14,000, with three-time candidate Robert Rosencrantz (running in the crowded race for open Position 8) out ahead with $15,746. However, among non-incumbent candidates, Sally Bagshaw (running for open Position 4), Martin Henry Kaplan (running for Position 6 against incumbent Nick Licata) and Jordan Royer (running for Position 8) were hot on his heels, with $14,190, $13,735, and $13,066, respectively. And even with all that money raised, Rosencrantz’s cash on hand, after liabilities, is the lowest of all the candidates running for Position 8, $9,555. (Position 8 candidate Mike O’Brien, who raised just $6,151 in April, still has the most money in that race, with $28,148 after liabilities.) And Bagshaw and her leading opponent, David Bloom, are neck and neck—he has $27,948 to her $28,914.
In the mayor’s race, challenger Joe Mallahan, a T-Mobile executive who put $200,000 of his own money into the race, has $205,500 on hand, bringing him up to par with Mayor Greg Nickels, who has $206,964. Mike McGinn and Norm Sigler have not yet filed reports, and James Donaldson raised just $6,225.
Do they do polls for these local elections? How do we know who is ahead as far as voters are concerned?
I’m not sure who is worse: the developer lobby, or the “let’s pretend that 20% no/no is a majority” lobby. Seems like a progressive council–if we could ever get one, which a business savy executive–like Mr. T Mobil, would be the ideal situation. But Seattle politcos don’t belive in pragmatism or compromise, much less dim-a-dozen faux polical writers.
Monique, candidates can get polling done for a price. Drago had some phone polling done recently because she is looking at running for mayor. We don’t usually see the results of those polls.
Even if the candidates don’t share the results with the public, they can use positive poll numbers to help drum up contributions or inform their decision to drop out/not enter a race.
With a lack of polling information, contributions and endorsements are the best way to gauge the viability a candidate. This is isn’t really indicative of general public opinion all the time, but it can tell you who will win. See Nickels’ general unpopularity vs his war chest and endorsements… Sadly, it looks like he is on track to be mayor again.
Realistically, polls tend to be too expensive unless you have deep pockets.
That said, the important thing is who you end up running against and how crowded the field is for that particular race – do you have a well-funded opponent with deep pockets, or is it the usual incumbent vs underfinanced insurgent battle?