I somehow missed it when it first came out (guess I should be watching more TV), but a new KING-5/SurveyUSA poll has Democratic US Rep. Jay Inslee slightly leading Republican AG Rob McKenna 47-44 in the race for governor. The poll was conducted 6/24 through 6/26, before Inslee kicked off his campaign.
Caveats abound. The spread is well within the margin of error, and polls this far out from the election are all but meaningless as a predictor of the final outcome. Plus, SurveyUSA hasn’t proven to be the most reliable polling company in recent years, at least not here in Washington state. But the results do suggest that the conventional wisdom on this race may not be all that wise.
Talk to a lot of the members of the press corps covering this race, and you’d think it’s already over: congratulations Gov. McKenna. McKenna’s going to way outperform past GOP candidates in crucial King County, I’m told, possibly even win it. McKenna has statewide name ID, while Inslee is relatively unknown outside his own congressional district. McKenna is slick and smooth and well-prepared—the consummate politician—whereas Inslee on the stump can be a little clunky and uneven. And most importantly, McKenna is allegedly a different kind of Republican, exactly the kind that appeals to swing voters in this state.
Yet none of those advantages show up in this poll.
No doubt McKenna is the strongest gubernatorial candidate the Republicans have fielded in years, but honestly, the past couple Democrats haven’t exactly been barn burners on the campaign trail either. Inslee, however, he has the ability to connect with people in a way I think a lot of insiders might find surprising. And if this race is really starting off as close as this and other recent polls suggest, he’s in a decent position to win.
Uhhhhh, this election will have the cannabis issue as a deal maker….. Peeps in Washington want cannabis legal….. Candidates who acknowledge this will gain office….. Inslee seems ahead on this one to the wire…
One thing I’ve learned as a somewhat geeky follower of Nate Silver is that one poll, by itself, is a poor indicator. What is more indicative is looking at polls in the aggregate over time.
There have now been several polls on Inslee vs. McKenna. Looked at as a whole, it is obvious that this is a close race, and that either of them could potentially win. All of the polls show them close, with one or the other leading by only a slim margin.
Anyone who calls the race this early based on these polls is an idiot. There is no clear leader at this point.
Wow, Inslee is ahead! So, he must be running on that immensely popular, progressive platform of “I’ll raise taxes, expand state government, cancel the DBT, increase welfare to illegals, expand benefits to SEIU members” platform!
Oh wait…he’s not. He’s running on no new taxes, aid to private business, make state government more ‘efficient’ platform…plus gay marriage.
Well, at least you’ll get one thing, you can marry anyone you please! I’ll take the no new taxes…which, with I1053 in place, means we pretty much have him by the balls.
The local media, led by the Seattle Times, hasn’t quite accepted that Washington is a thoroughly blue, Democratic state and formerly moderate Republicans* are now conservative Democrats. Yes, there is a substantial Republican block but they are too far out for 50%+ of the state and as McKenna(and Dunn) reveals himself to be one those whackos, his numbers will drop.
*Yes there are some R legislators on the Eastside who are potential votes for gay marriage. Great! let’s work on getting their votes for it. But they’re not leaders in their party, aren’t moderate on anything else, and their districts could be flipped to reliable Democrats with a decent candidate.
” this election will have the cannabis issue as a deal maker”
Smoke enough of it, and you’ll believe anything.
“Washington is a thoroughly blue, Democratic state and formerly moderate Republicans* are now conservative Democrats”
Who cares as long as taxes are kept in check. Hence, 2/3 of WA state consistently votes against raising taxed. We’ll have Inslee by the short and curlies even if he fumbles his way to a slim win.
“”Washington is a thoroughly blue, Democratic state and formerly moderate Republicans* are now conservative Democrats”
Which is why Inslee will need to throw the loony left, ‘progressives’ overboard and run as a moderate to win. He’ll also have to learn how to sound less like a retard when speaking.
Queers have a choice between a candidate who hates gay (McKenna) and a candidate whose hero stood by while queers died in the 80s (Inslee). I’ll be voting NONE OF THE ABOVE and keeping my self-respect.
Inslee was a rep for Eastern WA once upon a time… I remember seeing him at the Omak Stampede, talking turkey with the rednecks. They fucking loved him – he was doing one one one Q&As under a big shade tree, shaking hands, talking forever about things that rural Washingtonians care about (DNR, Fish & Wildlife, range land, salmon recovery, guns…) and he genuinely engaged with each person.
I think he has a better chance than most people would expect.