The bipartisan Washington State Redistricting Commission released today what (with perhaps minor modifications) will be the final boundaries for our state’s 10 congressional districts, and despite official praise from the state Democratic party, my initial reaction is that the Republicans came out on top.
Five districts lean Democratic, four Republican, and one—the newly rejiggered 1st CD—looks to be a 50-50 swing district. That pretty much sucks for Dems in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 1980.
How’d this happen? Well it looks like the Democratic members of the commission fought for and won a dubiously useful “majority-minority district” in the 9th, and a specially drawn “Denny Heck district” in the new 10th, with Republicans getting most of what they wanted in exchange. Ah well… Democratic politicians have never been all that good at playing politics.
Of particular note:
7th and 9th CDs: In an effort to turn the 9th into that mythical “majority-minority” district, Southeast Seattle has been peeled away from the 7th, and joined with Bellevue, Mercer Island, Renton, Kent, Tukwila, Seatac, Federal Way, and a bit of Tacoma (which is also shared by the 6th and 10th). But of course since the largest minority group by far in the district will be white people, and few of the other minority groups have a lot in common, I’d wager 9th CD Rep. Adam Smith is feeling pretty good about his chances of retaining his seat.
As for Seattle’s Rep. Jim McDermott, the 7th now stretches north to Edmonds. I doubt he’s much worried about his prospects either.
1st CD: “Washington’s newly drawn 1st District is ugly but lovable,” exclaims a state Dems press release: “Stretching from King County to Canada, the First will be a Democratic leaning district.” But I’m not so sure.
The 1st reaches east to the Cascades, consuming all of Whatcom, Skagit, and Snohomish counties, except for the most populated (and Democratic) regions along the Puget Sound. It also grabs a big chunk of rural east King County. The result is that the highly contested seat Democrat Jay Inslee is vacating to run for governor is now in a district that’s significantly more rural (i.e., Republican) than expected.
Most of the large field of already declared Democratic aspirants have found themselves drawn into the district, with the exception of state Rep. Marko Liias, whose Mukilteo home is well inside the 2nd Edmonds home is well inside the 7th, and newcomer Andrew Hughes (who lives in Seattle), so I guess that’s good news for them. But they also now share the district with Republican John Koster, who barely lost to incumbent Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen in 2010. So this will not be an easy race for the Democratic nominee.
2nd CD: Congratulations to Rep. Rick Larsen for being the big winner on this redistricting map. He barely won a tight race against Koster in 2010, but the new, smaller, more urban 2nd CD is much more Democratic.
8th CD: For the first time in forever, Rep. Dave Reichert won’t be shitting bricks this election season, what with his district losing some of its most Democratic north King County precincts, and now crossing the Cascades to include all of Chelan and Kittitas counties. Safe Republican from here to eternity.
The new 10th CD: Or as we call it in the business, the “Denny Heck District,” as its been drawn specifically to meet the needs of longtime Democratic pol (and Redistricting Commissioner Dean Foster’s friend and neighbor), Denny Heck.
Why the Democratic establishment is so enamored of Heck—who failed to beat unpolished Republican Jaime Herrera in 2010 for an open seat in the old 3rd CD—I’ll never know. But then, there’s a lot I don’t get about the Democratic establishment.
3rd CD: This southwest Washington district also crosses the cascades to subsume Klickitat County, while losing its Democratic precincts in and around Olympia to the newly created 10th. So the 3rd now officially moves from swing district to safe Republican for the foreseeable future.
Finally Tally: Republicans went from two safe-Republican and two lean-Republican seats to four safe-Republican seats, and a swing in the 1st. So it’s hard to see how Democrats chalk this one up as a victory.
I think Marko lives in Edmonds now – putting him in McDermott’s 7th district.
What the fuck is an “Edmund”
@1: Well, either way, that’s not the 1st. Maybe Marko needs to wait a few years for Jim to retire. He’d actually be a good fit for Seattle.
“Edmonds”, goldy, not “Edmunds”. thank you.
Goldy, ANYONE who has been paying attention knew this was going to happen.
I sent you an e-mail on May 25th warning you about about a Republican gerrymander, but I never heard back.
The Stranger should have been covering this for a long time, but now it’s probably too late. Our only hope is to pressure the Democrats to let the courts draw this map, and that probably won’t happen.
Are pink people considered “colored”?
Typical leftist creating a issue where there is none, this is a win for both sides, Dems look to have 4 safe seats and one swing but then the left will never stop bitching and moaning will they
If WA state is so progressive, why did I-1053 do so well and I-1098 so poorly.
I don’t much care what people say. I see these lines as opportunities, and I’m not letting go of that view until the 2021 redistricting commission comes out with their maps…
@7 they think Washington is a ‘progressive’ state. Fortunately most voters disagree.
@ 8 Elections year matter put up 1098 in 2012 and it will do a lot better, lot more Democratic turnout
Sorry that four safe, 1 lean, and one swing but Dems lost because of that?
@11 ‘A lot better’ still wouldn’t be enough. It didn’t even pass in King County in 2010.
If the Democrats could stop with the circular firing squad, we could get 10 D districts out of this.
Oh, never mind…
I don’t much care for what they’ve done to Northwest Washington. It made more sense for all of Whatcom/Skagit/Island/San Juan counties and most of Snohomish to be in the same district under old #2. The flows of commerce and community up there run together. Splitting Bellingham off from Mt. Vernon, and Mt. Vernon from Anacortes just doens’t make sense. They’ve basically carved the starboard side of Puget Sound off into the new #2 and put the rural communities of Whatcom, Skagit & Snohomish counties in with the KingCo suburbs. It don’t make sense. No sir, I don’t like it.
Maybe my perspective on this is skewed based on a lifetime of living in liberal centers surrounded by deep-reds who desperately want to bite chunks out of our electoral power (Austin, Seattle), but it seems like redistricting is always a win for Republicans.
@17, have you never heard of Tom Delay, or are you just not old enough to remember him? If rigged redistricting is a Democratic maneuver in the history books, it sure hasn’t been in my lifetime.
The term gerrymandering was coined before the Democratic Party even existed. Nice try, troll.
Yup. Big win for big Slade, and a pyrrhic “win” for the Win/Win Network.
None of the proposed districts looks gerrymandered. The 8th is slightly misshapen, but no biggie by gerrymandering standards.
@21: The 2nd and 1st are completely gerrymandered: the more liberal towns are cut off from their rural neighbors counties. Gerrymanders don’t have to look squiggly and funny to be gerrymanders, they just have to avoid natural geographic choices in favor of political aims. In this case, the coastal towns of the new 2nd should be in the same district as the inland sections of the new 1st, but they are split to pack Dems into the 2nd and make the 1st more swingy, therefore it’s a gerrymander. The new 9th is also arguably gerrymandered: minorities were deliberately packed into a long, squiggly district with a specific political goal in mind.
Microsoft will likely now be represented by some hayseed from Darrington or Lynden who will want to raise tariffs, ban trade with China and kill the HBI visa program.
South Seattle and South King are rapidly gentrifying in part due to the influx of middle class Asian-Americans.
A few thoughts.
1. The same complaints you have about Denny Heck apply to Darcy Burner.
2. I wouldn’t call the 10th a D district at all. JBLM has a ton of people who are in that area, and that population is growing. I’d say at best it’s a lean D district, but if I was a GOP operative, that district is one that should be ripe for the taking.
3. Darcy Burner’s campaign died today. I’m not sure if she’s now in the 8th or the 1st, but there’s no way in hell she’s getting elected to either.
4. It’s bizarre that there’s this big effort to make a majority minority district…which is then gerrymandered to keep Adam Smith’s house in it, so he can presumably be re-elected. Why not make him part of a district that’s better suited to him, i.e. the 10th.
There was never a snow-ball’s shot that the Dems would “win” this one, no more than the GOP would, either. This is what a compromise looks like. This is what our system is based on, the idea of compromise. Big fucking deal.
A few could have gone either way, but there are no ridiculous boundaries here. The accusations of gerrymandering are just your typical hyperbole.
There are far more important things to get upset about, like Gregoire’s budget, the legislature’s inability to raise revenue, the ludicrous deadlock in Congress.
FTR, Goldy, the new WA-03 doesn’t come anywhere close to Tacoma. There’s an entire Congressional District (WA-10, which is what you meant to say) between them.
Would the author prefer they create 10 safe Democratic districts?
@29: Yes. I’d prefer 10 safe Democratic districts. But since that’s not possible, I would have settled for three safe Republican districts, and a slightly more Democratic 1st CD that didn’t carve in a place for Koster.
I also think making sacrifices to carve out a district for Heck, and to create a marginally “majority-minority” district was stupid and short-sighted. The Republicans certainly got the best of these deals.
“I’d prefer 10 safe Democratic districts.” So you’re _for_ gerrymandering, then?
Listen, the Dems negotiated for those districts you don’t like. I personally think Heck is a chucklehead, but that’s party politics. When you compare how WA handled the redistricting to the other states in the union, we’re clearly at the top in regards to fairness & equanimity.