- horsesass.org
Mitt Romney may be consolidating his lead in the Republican presidential primary, but according to Darryl’s meta-polling analysis over at HA, that hasn’t translated into a leg-up in the head-to-head contest with President Barack Obama. With the latest state polls averaged in, Obama now has 99.6 percent chance of winning, with a mean of 335 electoral votes.
You know, assuming the polling data is accurate, and the election were held today.
As always, you should read the full post, and the methodology FAQ before automatically dismissing these results.
Prepare for the baining, Dems.
Let’s hope there isn’t a huge wave of blue voter apapthy in Novemeber.
That looks about right although I think Obama has a good shot at taking IN due to saving the auto industry and Gov Daniel’s unpopularity and AZ due to Latino backlash and Gov Brewer’s unpopularity.
I also doubt Obama takes SC, although it could happen if there’s a huge black turnout and a low evangelical turnout.
Well, we are in a blue state Goldy. I’m looking forward to your next insightful post.
So put your money down, folks. Looks like you have a sure thing.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?event…
Oops, I mistook your headline to refer to only Washington state. My sincerest of apologies Goldy.
The only way I see Team Blue winning SC is if the present spat between conservative factions within the state depresses turnout – which it could do, but….
MO, IN, VA are going to be close. NH maybe as well… Thanks to the wonderful Governor of FL and a Republican statehouse that can’t seem to stop him from repeatedly shooting the state and their party in the foot, I think we might just take this state.
Given a number of knife-edge possibilities going pear-shaped, I still see a minimum likely Electoral College result of 274 for Obama.
My two bits….
@1: Did that line sound better in your head than it did on here?
SOUTH CAROLINA? That’s frigging huge. I always thought Obama stood a chance in NC — he won there in ’08, by a hair — but never in a million years SC. Please make it so.
@9: http://a1.twimg.com/profile_images/11632…
@8, he’s been trying that line out for a week now, I think. It’s not getting any better.
I’m skeptical that Obama takes SC, *BUT*…the state is roughly 1/3 African American, and less than 1% of the participants in the GOP primary were. Between that and the Mormon thing…if a Democrat was going to win in SC any time soon, this would be the year.
@13, don’t be an ass. This is merely a map of polling data. One data point at one point in time. In no way is Goldy claiming to support every single policy issued by the White House. Duh.
Never assume that Mittens will play fair.
If you look at the actual turnout and votes in the primary and caucus states so far, you’ll see Mittens is trying to turn OFF voters.
That is his eventual nationwide strategery.
And think how popular he’ll be when he starts the new war!
Proof that Indiana is the Alabama of the midwest. I hate living there. Got room for me in Seattle?
@16 – Yeah guys, at least with Ronnie Paul we can all be slaves to corporations instead and we can let the states do whatever they want (like ban everything the majority doesn’t like – including pot). Woo!
Maybe all the racist bigots can come out of the closet too when Ronnie takes over! I know that’s what Spindles really cares about! And no vaccines for everyone ever (until Pfizer strikes a deal with the corporate schools)! What a paradise!