The latest polls are in.

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I’ve also been obsessed lately with the maps on 270towin.com. Starting with a map showing which states are in play (+/-5 based on a composite of of recent polls), you can assign a winner to each state and see the results. It’s becoming increasingly hard to come up with a realistic scenario in which McCain wins, but it’s fun to try. Make nearly any undecided state blue, and this cheery little graphic pops up:

democrats_win.gif

The way 270towin.com sees it right now, McCain cannot mathematically win without FL, OH, NC, VA, IN, MO, and CO. That’s right, all of them.

They also have electoral maps of every election back to 1789. I love maps.

I’m still nervous as hell, and won’t actually sleep well until this is all over—but dammit, this is good news.

Anthony Hecht is The Stranger's Chief Technology Officer. He owns no monkeys.

19 replies on “Sleep Well (Better?)”

  4. I’m sorry. As a strong supporter of Obama, who’s also Black, I’m being a realist until Election Day and McCain gives his concession speech. With McCain/Palin’s latest line of attacks, they’re sure to damage Obama’s poll numbers some. I hope I’m wrong and McCain/Palin’s attack backfires on them.

  5. I knew a man Bailo once. Always had a bunch of half-starved dogs at his place; was known for trying to get little boys to come over and see them. Everyone knew about it, but in those days you didn’t like to say anything. House has been vacant since he died in the fire, kids say it’s haunted.

  6. I’ve been watching 270towin.com also, Anthony, with some excitement. Obama wins in 99% of scenarios!
    please let it be true please let it be true please oh please oh please oh please

  8. So this is the point where all the conspiracy-minded liberals start to fret about what is going to happen. Will Bush start a war in Iran? Will some cold-war hostilities with Russia start (they just sent their ships to Venezuela). Will the government coordinate some plot against big O?

    Truth time, liberals. Is our government the big conspiracy you think it is?

  9. “Truth time, liberals. Is our government the big conspiracy you think it is?”

    Yes. Did you flunk history in college, or didn’t you make it that far?

  10. I sure as hell hope that Obama’s campaign doesn’t spend nearly the time I do looking at sites like 270towin and fivethirtyeight, etc. Because if they do, and feel like they can take their foot off the accelerator, he’s done.

    There is a lot of time left between now and Nov. All it takes is one bad move, one global event that makes McCain look like a better pick, one scandal that pops (sure, we know there can’t be one, but still…) for either Obama or Biden.

    So, I’m not going to sleep better until November 5.

  12. When McCain went under 200EV on fivethirtyeight, that’s when I started thinking this was winnable for a democrat. In the scenario rundown page, it is more than twice as likely Obama gets a landslide as McCain wins at all.

  13. You know what’s different about this election? It’s not just about what the Neoconservatives do or what dirty tricks they have up their sleeves. In 2000 and 2004, everything that happened was either action by the right or reaction by the left. In neither of those elections did I ever have the feeling that our candidate was really doing it right. I wanted to yell through the TV: Act human, Gore! Stop talking, Kerry!

    Obama is the first candidate who hasn’t made me want to yell and throw things at the television, to lie awake at night second guessing him. He knows what he’s doing.

    McCain seems only to be able to misstep, and his party is corrupt in a way that is transparent to all but the nuttiest of my conservative acquaintances (hi, Dad!). Combine that with the fact that Obama is a badass and we have it in the bag.

    Watch for McCain to present a special blend of crankiness and craziness in the remaining debates, and watch for Obama to play it cool. Have faith. We’re going to win this one.

  16. i could see every one of those states going for mccain. get down in the gutter & start throwing the mud back, barack. mccain’s on his heels. nothing is off the table – hint: only one candidate is an adulterer.

  17. I still say stock up on bottled water and canned goods and put some pillows and blankets in your basement. Even if there’s no nasty “October Surprise,” it’s still a long way to Jan. 20.

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