A recent report noted that former senior White House official, Dennis Ross, who is known for his closeness to the Israelis, estimated an Israeli strike on Iran could come in the next nine months.
In about nine months, the US will hold a general election to decide who shall be its President and all the noise about striking Iran could have more to do with American domestic politics than any real or perceived threat to the Israelis.
It is no secret that the right-wing government in Israel led by Netanyahu would prefer a new US president in January 2013. This is not simply because Netanyahu had some tense moments with President Obama, but also because in a second term Obama would not face the type of electoral constraints he faces in his first term.
It is no secret that US Presidents who have engaged in Israeli-Palestinian peace-making have been most active in their second terms as Bill Clinton was at Camp David and George W Bush was in Annapolis. Those that were particularly active in first terms – Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush – were defeated. Netanyahu does not want an unrestrained Obama demanding he halt settlement expansion in 2013. He’d rather have Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich as they are more likely to be more susceptible to the pro-Israel pressures AIPAC is apt to apply.
Netanyahu also knows that if Israel went ahead and attacked Iran on its own before the election, he would put Obama in an extremely compromising position. Obama does not want to get into a war with Iran, nor should any American as it is completely against American interests, but Obama also knows that should Israel go it alone, he’d be obligated to participate lest he appear weak before the electorate and a Republican opponent who’d be more than happy to attack Obama on what would immediately become a major international crisis before the election.
Yes, but I can’t see how war against Iran would be popular with the American public. Israel is doing most of the drumming for it, and Americans have not forgotten about Iraq’s WMD. What is Netanyahu playing at? My guess is it has nothing to do with Obama’s second term. It’s much more immediate than that: He is trying get as much out of the remaining 9 months as possible. Threats of war with Iran threaten the American recovery (enter oil). And the election really comes down to the state of the economy. What will Obama pay for stability in that region? My bet is the Palestinians are going to get fucked again.
