The P-I‘s David Horsey says he heard Seattle Times reporter David Heath offer up a dismal prediction at a fancy awards banquet in D.C. recently:

Seattle Times reporters David Heath and Hal Bernton were up at the front table to receive an award for a series of stories that documented the direct correlation between campaign contributions and legislation passed by Congress. When Heath got up to speak, he noted how, perhaps more than ever, regional newspapers like the Times (and, I would add, the Post-Intelligencer) are doing investigative journalism that has a national impact and, yet, those very newspapers are the most imperiled.

I had talked with Heath at a VIP reception before the dinner where we commiserated about the state of the newspaper business in Seattle. My newspaper, of course, is unlikely to exist in print format by the end of March. Heath surprised me with his pessimistic view that the Times may not survive to the end of 2009.

As unthinkable as it may be, Seattle could soon become the first large American city with no metro daily rolling off the presses.

Eli Sanders was The Stranger's associate editor. His book, "While the City Slept," was a finalist for the Washington State Book Award and the Dayton Literary Peace Prize. He once did this and once won...

27 replies on “Times Prognosis: Less Than a Year?”

  1. Reporters are naturally pessimistic. While it’s reasonable to observe the “Times” is in financial trouble (seen how few non-inserts are ads in the Sunday edition?), I can’t imagine all the real estate and physical assets it has would lead it to die. Of course, McClatchy is also 49% vested in it; a company that isn’t doing so hot itself.

  3. I axed my subscription to the Times after their dumbass Darcy Burner slander. Haven’t seen a hard copy in months. I picked one up on Monday while I was out of town and thought it was the local small town paper. Uh, no. The Times blows. No news. I’d rather aggregate blogs and get my news that way, making the weekend New York Times stretch all week instead. (Do NOT f*** with my NYT, however.)

  5. Will, I heard that after reading your inane comments on Slog for the past couple of months, the Times editors decided they wouldn’t want you as a subscriber.

  6. The site of Fairview Fanny would be one of the few places in this town where I’d love to see a bunch of new development go in. Tear that schitt down!

    And keep the P-I

  7. What Andrew said. I am anticipating savoring the moment I get to call Fairview Fanny’s subscription department and cancelling my subscription the day the Pee-Eye ceases publishing.

    Fuck Frank Blethen with a rusty can opener!

  8. Oops–another industry that spends more than it takes in while failing to make a compelling argument to its potential funding source (i.e. advertisers and readers, in that order) that its services are worth more than their current asking price.

  10. I thought the best part was when Horsey raises the tough questions. Blogs are great, but 90% of them comment on news reported elsewhere. There’s little (note I didn’t say zero) investigative reporting, deep/long-form stories, etc. This is the kind of stuff newspapers have been doing in decreasing amounts too, but it’s incredibly important.

    You do have a small number of bloggers or freelance journalists doing this kind of work, but I don’t know if that’s enough to replace the “subsidized” number of people doing it under the banner of a corporate newspaper right now.

    Plus, what will bloggers rant about if all the local newspapers go away?

    I loves me some blogs and frankly, for things like gadget reviews, aggregating content on a subject or simply as a different delivery mechanism for syndicated columns/features – they’re better than a newspaper/magazine. But there are some things the Internet hasn’t figured out how to replace (i.e. if there’s no Internet model to pay the people to do the hard news work/gathering, and newspapers die, that function dies with it).

  12. Both the P-I and the Times, bad as they have been, have a history of serious journalistic talent the likes of which no blogger anywhere has approached. Who’s going to pay for those long in-depth stories? I’m currently reading “The Final Forest: The Battle for the Last Great Trees of the Pacific Northwest” by then Seattle Times reporter William Dietrich; great stuff. Don’t see any bloggers having the resources to do that.

    I wonder, though, if the Times pessimists are counting the inevitable subscription bump they’re going to get. It could be as much as 100,000, probably less but still significant. Losing your only competition is usually pretty helpful to the bottom line.

  13. “There’s little (note I didn’t say zero) investigative reporting, deep/long-form stories, etc. This is the kind of stuff newspapers have been doing in decreasing amounts too, but it’s incredibly important.”

    Too bad newspapers can’t pay the bills with “importance”. But, if it really bothers you, pay for two copies each day.

  15. The Seattle Times showed up on the Newspaper Death Watch for 2009 back in December, where they predicted its demise by the end of the year.

    The NYT may not be long for this world, either. I saw a thing in the Atlantic a few weeks back that suggested that there is a ridiculously small percentage of paying subscribers who fund the all the freeloaders who only read the online edition.

  16. You should never subscribe to the ‘Times.’ Also, you should never comment on a blog that just posts their stories with a caption that reads “Have You Seen This Yet!!!!!!!!!!”

  18. Fuck the Hearst-owned P-I. Some major corporation that had a monopoly on the morning edition couldn’t turn a buck? I actually enjoyed reading the Times when it was an afternooner and didn’t have to hustle after headlines. Now, it mostly reprints the NYT wire, but it’s still (with all its right-wing nuttiness) better than the breathless “progressive yet owned by a major media corporation” P-I.

    And I hope the P-I gives the Times the right to mint money, which has always been the birthright of a single newspaper in town. I’d far rather have the crazy-ass Blethen clan make their own headlines than be left reading some mass media corporate bullshit over my morning coffee.

  19. I never thought of the P-I as “progressive”. I just thought it credited its readers with a little bit more intelligence.

    The Times, aside from its dumb editorial page, relies way too much on truly cheesy photojournalism as a way to fill up space on the front page. And it’s always basically the same picture: A figure (or figures) in the front, looking either happy or sad (depending on the story) while other figures lurk off-focus in the background.

    To be fair, this sort of thing has been oozing into the front page of the P-I for the last few years also, but the Times started it.

  20. Well, ha ha: Can’t wait for you high-brow Seattleites to get a real taste of mediocrity when Gannett swoops in and becomes the only game in town.

  21. Well,

    So here we have Eli Sanders, who posts a lot about the fate of the two local newspapers, but really doesn’t have much information, talking to David Horsey, the smug cartoonist, who has been talking to David Heath, a nice guy, but who doesn’t have any real idea of what Times management is planning or not planning.

    So what to make of this posting?

    Nothing.

  22. Isn’t Seattle repeatedly ranked as the nation’s most literate city? And the city with the highest per capita % of postgraduate degrees? Maybe we’re just ahead of the game. Newspapers are so last century.

  23. @12 You’re correct about the writing. Losing one daily will be bad enough, both will be a crime. As far as a circ bump goes, 100,000 is too optimistic, not to say impossible as the PI doesn’t have that many daily subscribers. Also, ad rates in the JOA are based on combined circ. That will definitely decrease after the PI is put to rest and advertisers are already asking for adjusted rates. Then again, 100% of the revenue will go to Times coffers…not that there’s a hell of a lot of revenue to speak of.

  25. David Heath is an outstanding reporter, but he has no more idea what the future of the Times will be than anyone posting on Slog — or Eli Sanders, for that matter.

    Two journalists’ idle speculation over cocktails hardly qualifies as newsworthy.

  27. @12, the circ bump might help the Times, but not in the near term. The Times’ problem short-term is debt load, not circulation. Heath may or may not know more than anyone else, but from what I gather, his is typical of the mood among Times employees. No one is doing any victory dances.

    Even so, other cities are probably going to beat Seattle to the 0-newspaper line.

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