I just heard Eli on KUOW say that the Washington Poll was coming out later today, so since he obviously doesn’t read HA, where we’ve had the results up since 7:24 this morning, I thought I better post ’em here: Patty Murray 50%, Dino Rossi 42%.
(How do we know? Because while KUOW is busy chatting with Skip, Joni and Eli, KPLU has been touting the top-lines all morning.)
Of course, that’s pretty much in line with Wednesday’s 51-43% CNN poll, and once you figure in the margins of error, really not that far off from the recent 51-38% Elway Poll that Republicans eagerly dismissed as an outlier.
And if you ask me, an 8-point margin sounds just about right.
538 has Murray up by four now, 51-47, with her chance of winning up to 78%. I think eight’s a bit optimistic. Everything hinges on turnover, doesn’t it?
Fnarf @1,
Well, I almost wrote “6 to 10” but that just sounded too woosy, so I split the difference.
Yeah, turnout could really turn this upside down, but Rossi’s got a real tough problem getting much more than 47%. Keep in mind that while the climate favors him tremendously more than in 2008, Murray is just a helluva lot more likable (and liked) than Gregoire, so the strength of his opponent kinda balances out a lot of the other circumstances.
And… Rossi has been running a much worse campaign than his previous two.
I hope that Rossi will fade into obscurity once this is all over. He’s just about as annoying as Tim Eyeman. I will give him this, the man knows how to lose.
@2, am I the only one who thinks Rossi is just phoning it in? He looks seriously uninterested in the proceedings every time I see him, like he really couldn’t care less and is just doing this because, well, I can’t imagine why he would do it if he didn’t really want the job. To pump up his consulting fees so he doesn’t have to go back to actually selling real estate?
You’d be phoning it in too if you had this ride waiting for you the second you dispense with all this politics nonsense and get back to doing what you do best.
@4 – it wasn’t at all Dino’s idea to run again. The state Republican party more or less begged him. They haven’t anyone else to run. They’ve already tried McGavick against Cantwell and Nethercutt against Murray, and been soundly spanked each time. So I’m not surprised he looks unenthusiastic.
It doesn’t help that he’s not precisely the sharpest quill on the porcupine, either.
Goldy! Of course I read your blog at every waking moment. Doesn’t everyone?
My excuse on this: For most of the moments between 7:24 a.m. and 10 a.m. this morning, I was either not awake or on my bike en route to KUOW, where I heard chatter in the green room about the WA Poll results, but was told they were embargoed.
KPLU is a sponsor of the poll, and Matt Barretto, who conducted the poll, tells me that’s why KPLU got the topline results before anyone else (allowing you to link to KPLU and catch me, literally, snoozing and biking and shmoozing and gabbing).
Nice scoop.
Very few people want to vote for a Red Communist like Comrade Rossi, when you get down to it.
@4 no, you’re right.
Comrade Rossi saw the early poll numbers and the map and realized he’s Three Strikes And You’re Out Of WA.
I’m greasing up the rail – who has the feathers?
Fnarf, I agree. Rossi does seem seriously disinterested, and he seems a poor study. His grasp of details appears low. Perhaps he is attempting to cultivate an aura of calm and a non-threatening persona, however I think the guy comes off completely ambivalent about the race.
Rossi’s replies about US involvelment in Afghanistan were particularly troubling. I sense he has a real shallowness of knowledge on the subject. That’s unacceptable when we have people fighting, being injured or dying there on a
daily basis.
Are they still doing that god damned pledge drive?