Yeah, I know, not-crazy challenger Charlie Wiggins is still trailing oh-so-crazy incumbent State Supreme Court Justice Richard Sanders by more than 13,000 votes, but over on HA this morning, I’ve kinda-sorta called the race for Wiggins.
Only kinda-sort, because the SOS’s “Ballots on Hand” estimates are notoriously unreliable, and my spreadsheet is only as good as the data I feed into it, but if these numbers are roughly accurate, and the remaining ballots don’t diverge much from those already counted (and there’s no obvious reason why they should) then Wiggins will likely win by a 5,000 to 10,000 vote margin, maybe even a little more.
And if my projections hold, Wiggins should buy a round of drinks for Eli and the rest of the folks here at the Stranger, for there’s no doubt that in an election this close, this publication’s relentless and persuasive pounding on Justice Sanders record of racism ultimately cost the incumbent the election. Truth to power, and all that.
Truth to power and all that, huzzah!
5-15k, and he’ll probably win with more, primarily because King County is so under-reported at the SOS’s office, and he’s picking up over 60% of the late votes in KC.
Shazam!
Justice…. its a bliss feeling when the bad get it and the good prevail. Sanders has hurt our state and many in it by his poor negative hypocritical opinions.
Justice Sanders, your justice will come this week. I am predicting Wednesday we will see the tide turn to Wiggins being in the lead!
Do I dare hope…?
If anything late votes should trend even more toward Wiggins, since the Times’ unendorsement of Sanders came well after ballots had been mailed.
I’ll second the kudos to Eli et al. It is a beautiful thing when you darlings get it right.
Over-alliterater.
Ha! I was working my way down from the top of the page and hadn’t seen this yet when I commented on the similar post. My comment echoes your post kind of a LOT!
@2 – Really interested in your analysis, michaelp. I’ve been doing the same thing since last week, and I started a blog over the weekend to post some analysis and in-depth look at some of the numbers. I’d love to compare notes with you and see how our models line up. If you’re interested, check out the blog at http://sanderswiggins.blogspot.com/ and shoot me an e-mail – if you’re at all interested, I’d love to share the space with you!