Under Bush we doubled our national debt in only eight years. Now the experts say Obama will have no choice but to increase it even further, with “bailouts” of an increasingly leaky ship. That means spending money we do not have–printing it, in the final analysis. That leads to inflation. Inflation leads to legends of fortunes in pre-war Germany reduced to worthless paper, of people trading shopping bags full of banknotes for a loaf of bread. What does money mean when it is backed only by debt?
And check out how he responds inline to some of the comments.
The doom and gloomers need to get their stories straight. Half of them are going on about deflation, the other half are going on about runaway inflation. You can’t have it both ways!
Ebert’s analysis of the situation is amazingly simplistic of course.
It’s the privilege of old men to believe their own impending demise presages the Apocalypse.
It’s the privilege of the young to believe their current health and vitality presages continued good times.
bob @2, I agree that it doesn’t make sense to be worrying simultaneously about deflation and runaway inflation. Maybe the better Hobson’s choice is between deflation and deepening debt. Also, I agree that Ebert’s analysis is simplistic.
But aren’t you being simplistic too? There were doomsayers leading into the Great Depression and World War II who were dismissed as chicken littles and who ended up looking prescient.
In our time, the Dr. Doom of economists Nouriel Roubini is looking like he told us so. And check out some of James Fallows’ articles in The Atlantic from a few years ago about how unsustainable and even crazy the Sino-American economic relationship has been. (Sino=Chinese.)
Conventional wisdom has had a miserable track record lately, so I wouldn’t be too comfortable that what’s next will still be normal as we know it.
Oh, and I see today’s Ad Hominen of the Day Award® goes to mint chocolate chip @3. Congratulations on keeping up the high level of discourse.
Does anyone really pay attention to anything Ebert writes? I haven’t taken him seriously since he acclaimed MILLION DOLLAR BABY a masterpiece and named CRASH his Best Picture of that year.
Cressona – The fact that there are people who got it right doesn’t prove anything because there are always people predicting doom and gloom, the end of the world. And occasionally one gets it right and predicts a significant problem.
That doesn’t necessarily mean they know what they’re talking about. I’m well aware of Roubini, we’ll have to see how his predictions fare going forward. I’ll point out that Roubini is concerned about deflation, not hyperinflation as Ebert predicts. Last I read Roubini predicts unemployment up to 9% and ending by the end of 2009. That’s bad, really bad, but not the nightmare scenario Ebert is discussing.
Personally I like Ebert, I admire his spirit in spite of his sickness even when I don’t agree with his reviews. But when non-informed pundits start making up disaster scenarios I have to wonder if that’s not a bit of their personal angst bleeding out into their columns.
I think it works like this. The government has been pumping the country FULL of money. Unfortunately since people are scared they are just holding onto that money instead of spending it, forcing retailers to cut prices, making people even more hesitant to buy now because prices are on the decline, and thus continuing a vicious cycle of deflation.
Now, on the other hand, there is still a shit ton of money being printed by the government and thrown into the markets as well as lending and interest rates going to near zero. When institutions do start spending again it could be in a very, very big way, and that could cause some devastating inflation.
so were screwed on both sides.
There are ways to deal with inflation if it becomes a problem. We’re better off taking strong measures to fix the problems we have right now and dealing with inflation later if it becomes an issue.
The alternative is to take less stringent action to deal with the current problem out of fear of inflation, and find that we’re stuck with deflation and an even longer period of economic contraction.
People have been predicting shit like this for the past 30 years and nothing’s happened. It’s just a shitty time being sensationalized by media and citizens alike into the fucking end of days. Chill out.
Thanks for posting the link – and the Ebert comments upon comments are awesomeness itself!
Commenter: Geez, you really woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. There are only two things you have to remember to live a happy life:
1. Don’t sweat the small sh*t.
2. Remember that everything is small sh*t.
Ebert: Hope I don’t die with sh*t on my face.
Gloom. Doom.
Bush proved there are still those on the right who think they can ignore the lessons of history. Fortunately, the rest of us do not. I believe, with compassionate and wise leadership, we can rally and change things. The world needs us to do this as much as we do.
So what is it, Mr. Ebert? SLOG readers? Is it better to live in a dense urban situation, in a smaller home or apartment, take the bus and walk lots of places? Or is it better to live in a rural environment, grow your own food (and slaughter your own animals) and drive a big truck around? (BTW, most Amish still work, selling stuff to the “English” and use money. Idealizing the Amish isn’t the way to go, and I really thought that Ebert was smarter than that.)
I’m just sort of disgusted by this article, which is shallow at best.
And by the way…
Just because you are an American quoting from an English poet does not mean it is not pretentious to title your “journal” using English rather than American spelling.
Man, I haven’t taken Ebert seriously since he said a bunch of truly incomprehensible shit about video games. I don’t even remember what he said anymore, just that he was a stupid fucking asshole who didn’t know shit about what he was talking about.
Ebert overstates negatives and neglects the positives. Today, Americans have a standard of living better than 99% of all humans who have existed on Earth (including kings and royalty) .
Watch “The Grapes of Wrath” to get an idea of misery. We are not in that situation.
Ebert is correct, however, in pointing out that our economic system is unsustainable. We cannot continue in this fashion much longer (perhaps a decade or two).
Our society will downsize. We will live more modestly. We will buy locally. We will become more regional. We will become more tribal.
McWorld had a good run, but Jihad is making a strong comeback.
Even after the change, we will be in a better position than our grandparents. I don’t believe that living like our grandparents is a complete disaster. There are positives to living for something more than consumption of goods and services. At least I hope there is more to it than that.
See you in hell, Ebert!
bob @8:
Cressona – The fact that there are people who got it right doesn’t prove anything because there are always people predicting doom and gloom, the end of the world. And occasionally one gets it right and predicts a significant problem.
True enough. I would just add that the fact that there are always people out there predicting the impending apocalypse shouldn’t distract us from taking seriously those individuals who just might have their ear to the ground.
On further analysis, though, I think you’re right, bob. Ebert does come closer to the “end of the world” crowd than the “sober analyst” crowd. Just, I think there’s some sober analysis out there predicting serious convulsions coming down the pike. (OK, so we haven’t reached the end of history.)
Good comments too by Nora @15 and Medina @18. Yup, Ebert has no perspective.
Cressona for the win, but Ebert is just being a downer cause of other things that have impacted his personal view on life.
Look, the only thing you can say is the only way you leave the world is in a pine box.
Unless you’re cremated … or eaten by animals.
To properly kill this thread, I found another popular reviewer of cultural objects who’s decided to weigh in on financial Armageddon: Jeremy Clarkson of the BBC’s Top Gear, writing in the Times of London today, predicts global doom by way of reviewing the new Vauxhall V6: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/driving…
Interesting article, but some people should just be taken out back and shot to put them out of their misery.
Ice flows work better though, but we’re running out of those, and the lack of polar bears means the corpse might bob around for a while.
Ebert’s awesome. Best passage:
And check out how he responds inline to some of the comments.
The doom and gloomers need to get their stories straight. Half of them are going on about deflation, the other half are going on about runaway inflation. You can’t have it both ways!
Ebert’s analysis of the situation is amazingly simplistic of course.
It’s the privilege of old men to believe their own impending demise presages the Apocalypse.
It’s the privilege of the young to believe their current health and vitality presages continued good times.
bob @2, I agree that it doesn’t make sense to be worrying simultaneously about deflation and runaway inflation. Maybe the better Hobson’s choice is between deflation and deepening debt. Also, I agree that Ebert’s analysis is simplistic.
But aren’t you being simplistic too? There were doomsayers leading into the Great Depression and World War II who were dismissed as chicken littles and who ended up looking prescient.
In our time, the Dr. Doom of economists Nouriel Roubini is looking like he told us so. And check out some of James Fallows’ articles in The Atlantic from a few years ago about how unsustainable and even crazy the Sino-American economic relationship has been. (Sino=Chinese.)
Conventional wisdom has had a miserable track record lately, so I wouldn’t be too comfortable that what’s next will still be normal as we know it.
Oh, and I see today’s Ad Hominen of the Day Award® goes to mint chocolate chip @3. Congratulations on keeping up the high level of discourse.
Does anyone really pay attention to anything Ebert writes? I haven’t taken him seriously since he acclaimed MILLION DOLLAR BABY a masterpiece and named CRASH his Best Picture of that year.
Cressona – The fact that there are people who got it right doesn’t prove anything because there are always people predicting doom and gloom, the end of the world. And occasionally one gets it right and predicts a significant problem.
That doesn’t necessarily mean they know what they’re talking about. I’m well aware of Roubini, we’ll have to see how his predictions fare going forward. I’ll point out that Roubini is concerned about deflation, not hyperinflation as Ebert predicts. Last I read Roubini predicts unemployment up to 9% and ending by the end of 2009. That’s bad, really bad, but not the nightmare scenario Ebert is discussing.
Personally I like Ebert, I admire his spirit in spite of his sickness even when I don’t agree with his reviews. But when non-informed pundits start making up disaster scenarios I have to wonder if that’s not a bit of their personal angst bleeding out into their columns.
I think it works like this. The government has been pumping the country FULL of money. Unfortunately since people are scared they are just holding onto that money instead of spending it, forcing retailers to cut prices, making people even more hesitant to buy now because prices are on the decline, and thus continuing a vicious cycle of deflation.
Now, on the other hand, there is still a shit ton of money being printed by the government and thrown into the markets as well as lending and interest rates going to near zero. When institutions do start spending again it could be in a very, very big way, and that could cause some devastating inflation.
so were screwed on both sides.
There are ways to deal with inflation if it becomes a problem. We’re better off taking strong measures to fix the problems we have right now and dealing with inflation later if it becomes an issue.
The alternative is to take less stringent action to deal with the current problem out of fear of inflation, and find that we’re stuck with deflation and an even longer period of economic contraction.
People have been predicting shit like this for the past 30 years and nothing’s happened. It’s just a shitty time being sensationalized by media and citizens alike into the fucking end of days. Chill out.
Thanks for posting the link – and the Ebert comments upon comments are awesomeness itself!
Commenter: Geez, you really woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning. There are only two things you have to remember to live a happy life:
1. Don’t sweat the small sh*t.
2. Remember that everything is small sh*t.
Ebert: Hope I don’t die with sh*t on my face.
Gloom. Doom.
Bush proved there are still those on the right who think they can ignore the lessons of history. Fortunately, the rest of us do not. I believe, with compassionate and wise leadership, we can rally and change things. The world needs us to do this as much as we do.
So what is it, Mr. Ebert? SLOG readers? Is it better to live in a dense urban situation, in a smaller home or apartment, take the bus and walk lots of places? Or is it better to live in a rural environment, grow your own food (and slaughter your own animals) and drive a big truck around? (BTW, most Amish still work, selling stuff to the “English” and use money. Idealizing the Amish isn’t the way to go, and I really thought that Ebert was smarter than that.)
I’m just sort of disgusted by this article, which is shallow at best.
And by the way…
Just because you are an American quoting from an English poet does not mean it is not pretentious to title your “journal” using English rather than American spelling.
Man, I haven’t taken Ebert seriously since he said a bunch of truly incomprehensible shit about video games. I don’t even remember what he said anymore, just that he was a stupid fucking asshole who didn’t know shit about what he was talking about.
Ebert overstates negatives and neglects the positives. Today, Americans have a standard of living better than 99% of all humans who have existed on Earth (including kings and royalty) .
Watch “The Grapes of Wrath” to get an idea of misery. We are not in that situation.
Ebert is correct, however, in pointing out that our economic system is unsustainable. We cannot continue in this fashion much longer (perhaps a decade or two).
Our society will downsize. We will live more modestly. We will buy locally. We will become more regional. We will become more tribal.
McWorld had a good run, but Jihad is making a strong comeback.
Even after the change, we will be in a better position than our grandparents. I don’t believe that living like our grandparents is a complete disaster. There are positives to living for something more than consumption of goods and services. At least I hope there is more to it than that.
See you in hell, Ebert!
bob @8:
True enough. I would just add that the fact that there are always people out there predicting the impending apocalypse shouldn’t distract us from taking seriously those individuals who just might have their ear to the ground.
On further analysis, though, I think you’re right, bob. Ebert does come closer to the “end of the world” crowd than the “sober analyst” crowd. Just, I think there’s some sober analysis out there predicting serious convulsions coming down the pike. (OK, so we haven’t reached the end of history.)
Good comments too by Nora @15 and Medina @18. Yup, Ebert has no perspective.
Cressona for the win, but Ebert is just being a downer cause of other things that have impacted his personal view on life.
Look, the only thing you can say is the only way you leave the world is in a pine box.
Unless you’re cremated … or eaten by animals.
To properly kill this thread, I found another popular reviewer of cultural objects who’s decided to weigh in on financial Armageddon: Jeremy Clarkson of the BBC’s Top Gear, writing in the Times of London today, predicts global doom by way of reviewing the new Vauxhall V6:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/driving…
Interesting article, but some people should just be taken out back and shot to put them out of their misery.
Ice flows work better though, but we’re running out of those, and the lack of polar bears means the corpse might bob around for a while.
Right little ray of sunshine, that Roger Ebert.