The most common refrain in Seattle politics last week: “Man, it
would be great if Tim Burgess/Peter Steinbrueck/Michael McGinn would
run against Greg Nickels.”
The second most common refrain? “I mean, I couldn’t support
him—I’m a Nickels guy—but it sure would be great if someone would run.”
That paradox—everybody wants someone to run against Mayor
Nickels, but no one wants to support a challenger—was
evident at Nickels’s campaign barbecue last Saturday, a usual-suspects
crowd long on Nickels acolytes and employees but short on new faces.
Everywhere, the crowd was buzzing (with disappointment or relief,
depending on whom you talked to) at the news that Burgess—a
freshman city council member who had formed an exploratory committee
for a possible mayoral bid—had decided to sit this year out.
Privately, Burgess told supporters that he just couldn’t take on the
mayor’s machine, which has a lock on just about every donor in
town.
Who could? Maybe Peter Steinbrueck, the former city council
member who stepped down in 2007 after being reelected twice in 1999 and
2003 with 78 and 82 percent of the vote, respectively. Although
Steinbrueck usually demurs when asked if he’s planning to run (and
didn’t return a call by press time), a recent poll (provided by a
top-secret, but reliable, source) showed him even with or ahead of
Nickels in virtually every conceivable lineup.
Among likely primary-election voters, in a two-way matchup with
Nickels, Steinbrueck wallops Nickels 46.6 percent to 24.1
percent, with 29.4 percent undecided. Among likely primary-election
voters 55 and up (the subgroup that’s most likely to vote in an
off-year primary election like this year’s), Steinbrueck gets an
outright majority of 53.2 percent to Nickels’s 22.4 percent, with 24.4
percent undecided.
Those are good numbers. Really good. Potentially good enough
to overcome the (perhaps irrational) fear that Nickels has all the
money in town locked up. And of all races, this may be one in which a
credible candidate could run without a ton of money—campaign
operatives are complaining that the economy has led people to scale
back their donations, and those who can afford to max out to Nickels
(giving the $700 maximum contribution) already have. As of last month,
Nickels had about $162,000 on hand—around the same amount he had
at the same time in 2005, when he ran with no serious challenger.
The upshot: Even the mayor may have trouble mustering the kind of
massive war chest he’s had in the past, and challenging him may be less
expensive than ever. (The only downside: Steinbrueck is famously averse
to asking for money.) Although another candidate could step forward
(Seattle Great City Initiative founder Michael McGinn is one
name you hear frequently), Steinbrueck currently looks like the best
shot Nickels opponents have for a credible mayoral challenger.
More in NEWS
Local (and not-so-local) news from your favorite writers.
Michael McGinn would be the most progressive, positive, engaging candidate. Run, Mike, Run!!
Steinbrueck wouldn’t need to raise a ton of money, because he already has the name recognition, the positive public perception, and a clear track record.
I think both Steinbrueck and McGinn would be refreshing changes. I’d be most intrigued by McGinn, as he seems to offer a vision for a future Seattle that most directly deals with our challenges. Here’s to hoping you run, McGinn!
Michael McGinn is the anti-Nickels and the prospect of him running ought to be of great concern to the Nickels team.
Yesterday you reported on a “leaked poll” about which you couldn’t even name the margin of error or who commissioned the work. Today, you don’t even bother to include the disclaimer. Today the numbers speak for themselves. That’s unprofessional and unethical.
Sounds like a job for a fundraiser and a campaign manager. Surely there’s some bright regional Web 2.0 campaign manager who sees the opportunity to take a great candidate to City Hall and launch a career.
Peter Steinbreuck has Netroots by default because he draws the younger crowd–and the post-Obama bloggers are not an afterthought. He needs somebody who can run a a solid ground game.