The younger, more progressive votes come in late. Longstanding trends tell us that the second ballot drop doesn’t mean shit, but the third and fourth drops are a tell all in a tight race.

And … Fuck! King County Elections only counted 30,000 more ballots in Seattle. What’s normally a revealing ballot drop isn’t as decisive (fewer votes counted=less revealing) and it’s also not clear when this batch of votes came in and where they came from. This might drag into next week.

AND OUR NEXT MAYOR IS?

Ha! Good one. We don’t know yet.

Wilson shrank the gap between her and Harrell by almost 2.5 points in this ballot drop. She now has 46.93 percent of the vote to Bruce Harrell’s 52.64 percent. But the overall total isn’t going to tell you as much as the percentage of the vote with each drop.

To beat incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell, Katie Wilson needed just over 54 percent of the votes counted after Wednesday. She pulled in more than 51 percent of today’s drop. That’s less, obviously. Wilson needs roughly 55 percent of all remaining votes to win.

Where are the big leaps? The bounds? From anyone! This is all very unsatisfying. We wanted a gladiatorial finish. This feels like Risk.

A GREEK CHORUS OF POLITICAL CONSULTANTS

Surely, someone must be able to read these tea leaves. Fuck, where’s Rachael Savage when you need her? Oh, right, rotting away with 19 percent of the vote. We asked these guys (gender neutral) instead. 

Stephen Paolini, who is affiliated with Katie Wilson’s PAC: “Sadly today’s drop is the worst outcome. Which is to say, not conclusive or enough to change my perspective that this race currently leans Wilson, but we don’t know for sure. To feel comfortable that Katie is going to win, I needed to see 54 percent of today’s drop go her way… On today’s trajectory she’d fall just shy of winning, but I’d absolutely expect an uptick in tomorrow’s drop of primarily ballot box voters.”

Ben Anderstone, who worked on Sara Nelson’s campaign: “Not quite what she needs … but it’s possible today’s swing might have been slightly muted compared to future days.” 

Michael Fertakis, consultant to Girmay Zahilay and Stephanie Fain: “While it’s good that she’s picking up votes, if I were her team I’d much prefer to have seen at least 53 percent. This is going to be a nail biter of an election.”

Crystal Fincher, host of the Hacks & Wonks podcast: “I think it’s fair to say that Katie supporters were hoping for a slightly bigger percentage, and everyone wanted a bigger drop of ballots counted in today’s tally. Getting the latter may have addressed the former. Basically, we still don’t know anything, but this looks like it will end up very close (maybe even in a recount) and we won’t know where things stand until next week.”

YES KINGS (OF THE COUNTY)!

Once again, Girmay Zahilay added more votes to his pile in the race for King County Executive. He’s sitting at 51.73 percent of the vote, an increase of 1.17 percent over Wednesday’s numbers. Claudia Balducci lost 1.12 percent of her vote share, sending her back to the shadow realm of 47.05 percent. At this point, it’s really looking like Zahilay will maintain his lead in this tight race. Ballots still to come should lean more progressive and Zahilay seems to be the pick for younger, more progressive, sexier voters (hello, Stranger readers). That’s not super promising for Balducci who’s been trying to appeal to less young, less sexy, suburbanites since the primary. 

DON’T LET THIS ASSHOLE WIN, THE ASSHOLE IS NOT WINNING

Oh, happy day! In the race for Legislative District 33, incumbent Rep. Edwin Obras inched ahead of that faux-Democrat and real chump Kevin Schilling. It’s still a dead heat, but Obras has 49.69 percent to Burien Mayor Schilling’s 48.62 percent. His share of the vote increased 1.2 percent Thursday. Schilling lost 1.1 percent. Every vote counts, people! We do not want a ghoul masquerading as a Democrat in the Legislature when it comes time to hard conversations around budgets and possible changes to that pesky regressive tax code. The average Dem is bad enough!

The Stranger Election Control Board is composed of staff writers and editors who volunteer to grill, research, fight over, and ultimately endorse candidates running for office in local, state, and federal...

25 replies on “Thursday’s Ballot Drop Is Here”

  2. Katie is going to need to repeat Sawant’s comeback – I don’t see that happening (she’s simply not gaining the ground needed to overcome an 8 point high waterline)

  3. @2: I think we need to get away from the “Sawant’s comeback” model for the current election. Sawant was a multi-term incumbent, representing the most liberal and physically smallest district, who had a HUGE number of folks on the ground in the weeks before the election to drive turnout. (At least one of whom had arrived in town for this purpose; he tried to claim he lived in District 3, then identified his actual neighborhood of residence as somewhere outside the district. Oops…)

    Furthermore, I somehow doubt a Mayor Wilson would want to dodge a recall, and then quit after one term! 😉

  4. “Ballots

    still to come

    should lean more progressive

    and Zahilay seems to be the pick for

    younger,

    more progressive,

    sexier voters* (hello, Stranger readers).

    GO, KATIE!

    and:

    damn! TWO

    outta Three! whoa!

    HELLO SEXY SECB!

    (make Certain

    your Katie Vote

    Got COUNTED!!):

    Your Ballot Might Not Have Counted

    But All 1,794 of You Can Still Fix It,

    And Should Right Now

    https://www.thestranger.com/news/2025/11/06/80313522/your-ballot-might-not-have-counted

    Right Now!

    *and

    Then

    there’s

    them Other.

  5. @3: “Furthermore, I somehow doubt a Mayor Wilson would want to dodge a recall, and then quit after one term!”

    Yeah, she usually doesn’t quit until Trinity term! 😂

  7. Like I wrote yesterday, just substitute “stupid and naive” when The Stranger writes “progressive”.

    I think maybe if you wrote “fuck” some more it would help!

  9. Wilson got 51.8% today. Every day that she falls short of the 56% she needs to overtake Harrell, increases the amount the needs the subsequent days. tl;dr Bruce will be re-elected mayor.

  12. Kristofarian dear, can you give examples of her “integrity”?

    And according to Forbes, there are twelve billionaires in the Seattle Area. I doubt if any of them are eligible to vote in the Seattle elections. Medina and Hunt’s Point are not part of Seattle.

  13. When I saw that Katie Wilson was running for mayor, I instinctively knew I had seen her before. Doing a little research, my suspicions were confirmed – that antiquated, Plain Jane, visage is no accident – there are still shot daguerreotypes of her in Ken Burns 1990 PBS documentary on the Civil War. Katie was a Union camp attendant who sadly perished near the Hornets Nest at the battle of Shiloh. Though she might have gained some real world skills in that environment, I just dont think she has the kind of background needed to lead a major city in this day and age.

  15. @11: Such astounding savvy inside baseball insight! You should get a gig on Morning Joe.

    Seriously, I can’t blame you for extrapolating a ubiquitous attribute into whatever sticks. After all, she has the same amount of political experience as Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth going in, so I can’t blame her or any wannabe politician wanting to follow a similar hyperbolic pattern into executive power.

  16. @12: ‘…can you give examples of her “integrity”?’

    Sure! The child of two academics simply chose to drop out of Oxford with six weeks to go. That’s obviously a true story, which we know ‘cause one of her first Seattle employers had never heard of it.

    Also, she needs money from her parents for “childcare,” because her husband, being totally unemployed, hasn’t the time to care for their child himself.

    Integrity!

  24. @23: How do you arrive at 50,000+ votes outstanding? I make it more like 24,000 votes outstanding (which, if true, would mean Wilson would need more than 57% of the outstanding votes).

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