If you’ve been hearing something about a hot Congressional race in Ohio and wondering why, here’s the math behind the hype:
There are 60 Republican-held Congressional districts that are more conservative than Ohio’s 12th, which has been “reliably red for more than three decades.”
Democrats only need to snatch 23 seats from Republicans in order to take control of the US House of Representatives this fall.
And in this Tuesday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th—the last special election before the November midterms—the 31-year-old Democrat in the race, Danny O’Connor, has surged into a virtual tie with incumbent Republican Troy Balderson. (This is in a district where there are twice as many registered Republicans as there are registered Democrats.)
All of which adds up to a very freaked out Republican establishment.
Trump, Pence, and Paul Ryan have all made visits. Outside groups aligned with conservatives are spending millions on TV ads. And, according to Politico, “the Republican National Committee has opened two offices in the district.”
Ohio’s 12th is not the kind of Congressional seat Republicans should be having to make an all-out push to save, and if it votes for O’Connor tomorrow we’ll have further evidence that a “blue wave” is coming—propelled in large part by Democratic voters who, even in the midst of the August vacation season, are far more eager to get to the polls than Republicans.
And even if O’Connor loses, notes The Washington Post, “just getting this far is a strong signal that Democrats are well positioned to take back control of the House of Representatives in November, for the first time in eight years.”
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