Dow Constantine can count.
He knows that if you add the 27 percent of votes he got in the
August 18 primary to the 35 percent of votes that went to his main
Democratic rivals—Ross Hunter, Larry Phillips, and Fred Jarrett,
who have all endorsed Constantine in the general election—you get
to 62 percent. That math suggests that the King County executive’s seat
will be his. But not so fast, Dow. Susan Hutchison may be a Republican
running in an overwhelmingly Democratic county, but she’s a closet
Republican who scored 33 percent of the primary vote in an
overwhelmingly Democratic county. And the hazards in this race are
unusual: Hutchison is a well-known former TV-news anchor, the position
she wants is technically nonpartisan (so Hutchison’s Republican
affiliations won’t be apparent to some voters), and King County has
never had a female executive before. In the first head-to-head poll
since the primary election, released by SurveyUSA on September 4,
Hutchison was beating Constantine 47 to 44 percent. Yikes.
Here are the five biggest problems Constantine faces—and some
advice on how to solve them and win.
The Palin Problem
A former TV personality who’s running for executive office, who
speaks with warm conviction but little discernable meaning, who’s
clearly a right-wing nut, and who nevertheless may possess an
incomprehensible ability to attract moderate voters—sound
familiar?
In many ways, Hutchison is the Northwest’s Sarah Palin. Except maybe
one: “At least Sarah Palin was the mayor of Wasilla,” sighed a former
TV-news colleague as Hutchison prepared to give her primary-night
victory speech at the Edgewater Hotel. It’s true: Palin actually had a
much better political résumé.
Still: The charm, the optimism, the ability to utter amazingly
stupid lines such as “I don’t have to say anything to the voters” while
actually winning over a lot of those voters—it’s a problem. So is
the fact that Hutchison positioned herself in Palin territory by
talking about putting King County on “a meat loaf, not a steak, diet,”
which allows her to play the voice-of-the-real-people (read: suburban
and rural people) card if she’s hit with any kind of
Dow-from-the-big-city-knows-best stuff. Which is to say, she’s ready to
play the victim. It worked wonderfully for Palin.
In the primary, Constantine’s pugnacious side played well among
hardcore urban Democrats. But in the general election he needs to
appeal to more suburban and rural folks on the other side of Lake
Washington. If he appears to attack and demean what Hutchison
represents—a successful, conservative, female outsider who says
she can steer government better than the boys who’ve been running the
show—that will only play into her hand.
What should Constantine do? Watch the October 2008 debate between
Palin and Joe Biden. Watch how Biden sits back and lets Palin hang
herself. Watch how he takes her words, repeats them, looks at them
quizzically, but then, when he could easily go in for the mocking kill,
uses the moment to tout his own positions (preventing her from grabbing
any easy martyr moments). Watch, most of all, how he’s more focused on
how government needs to change than on making easy prey out of his
adversary. That’s how you deflate a right-wing TV-news talking head
who’s trying to distract voters from how frighteningly unqualified she
is for the job.
The Seattle Problem
Seattle is by far the largest trove of votes in the county. It’s
overwhelmingly Democratic. But it’s also an easy symbolic target. Which
is why Hutchison has been implicitly running against Seattle,
name-checking in her primary-night speech all the rural
areas—like Orting and Duvall and Skykomish—where she’s
finding that “everyone wants change.” It’s clearly her strategy to blow
through the county’s rural lands promising that big, bad, Seattle-style
leaders like Constantine won’t be ignoring them any longer.
Constantine needs to find a way to subtly Sister Souljah Seattle.
Nothing huge and splashy, but something that can be repeated in places
like Orting and Duvall and Skykomish. Something that makes him sound
like one of them. Politicians play this kind of dog-whistle
politics all the time, and if Constantine really wants to trounce
Hutchison in the general, then he’s going to have to whistle at a lot
of dogs. How about something exciting but not exactly inside the county
exec’s purview? Like, say, coming out against Mayor Greg Nickels’s
attempt to ban guns in city parks. Something like: “I think—and
it appears even Seattle voters agree with me since they just voted him
out—that the mayor of Seattle went a little too far in
interfering with people’s individual liberties. That’s not the kind of
county executive I want to be.” Let the gun nuts mull it over with
their rural friends, let the lefties figure out what’s really going on,
and let Hutchison’s base get a little wobblier.
The Pugilist Problem
Constantine likes a fight. He comes off as pugnacious and scrappy
and willing to hit Hutchison hard, all qualities that endeared him to
those who loathe her duplicity. Given the recent poll that shows
one-third of Democrats currently support Hutchison, he needs to
continue broadcasting her Republican roots to Democrats who gravitate
to Hutchison for her name recognition. But he’s trying to get more than
just those people now. He’s trying to grab the attention of voters who
have a soft spot for Hutchison, or could be made to have one.
And, while it’s tricky to say this in normal conversation, in
political circles it’s talked about openly: When a male politician
appears to relish beating up on a female opponent, he risks igniting
blowback and eliciting sympathy for that opponent. People as far apart
on the feminist spectrum as Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton have shown
they are willing to exploit this if the man they’re running against
steps over, or even close to, the line. (Just recall how Clinton’s camp
stoked a sense that all the men in the 2008 presidential debates were
ganging up on her.) Constantine needs to take the edge off just a
bit—especially in his upcoming televised debates with Hutchison.
He already proved he can land punches and shove Hutchison’s Republican
leanings into the forefront of the discussion. He can’t drop those
attacks completely, but it would help him woo those sympathetic to
Hutchison if he were a bit less the feisty pugilist and a bit more the
pragmatic populist.
And speaking of populism…
The Populist Problem
As a current member of the county council, Constantine spent a lot
of the primary touting his record in King County government. The
problem: Hutchison’s trying to lead a populist insurgency
against King County government. “Can we trust our future to the
same politician who helped create the mess we’re in?” she asks.
She wants to paint Constantine as the incumbent—to make people
think he’s basically been King County executive for the last three
terms—and he needs to be retired because, well, look at this
mess! But Constantine can’t run away from his record. He’s done some
great things on the council—such as sponsoring a bill, which
passed in June, to protect whistle blowers who reveal waste in the
county government—that people need to know about. He should
emphasize his long record. All of it. He’s been in the state
legislature, a body that’s not thought of as having a soft spot for the
elites in Seattle. And unlike Hutchison, Constantine has actually been
a populist, rallying communities to protect their land and using his
law degree to fight on their behalf. (Okay, fighting for neighborhood
parks and against construction of an oil port on Port Susan Bay, but
see how it sounds so much more populist when you say “rallying
communities to protect their land”?) Also, he should keep talking about
the need to change a county government “that has become too
bureaucratic and is no longer able to provide the critical services
expected by King County residents.” In politics, if you’re good, you
can be a bunch of things at once: successful county council incumbent,
strident critic of the county’s failings (which of course you tried to
fix while on the council, but now need to be in the executive’s seat to
really solve), and, above all, Man of the People!
The Even Bigger Problem That Solving All These Problems
Solves
It’s not just that Constantine needs to demolish Hutchison at the
polls in order to keep the King County executive’s seat in Democratic
hands. He also needs to prevent Hutchison from actually becoming
the next Sarah Palin. If Hutchison wins this race, comes close, or even
just turns in a respectable showing for a political novice, she will
have what she now lacks: a political trial by fire that gives her
legitimacy and experience the next time she runs. Imagine if Palin had
never won that race to become mayor of Wasilla. Focus on the image of
an America that had never let Palin leap into big-league politics, and
it’s easy to see how important it is that Constantine not just win this
fall, but win big, overwhelmingly, as if bouncing Hutchison out of the
race was no problem at all. 
Constantine’s hair plugs gross me out. New picture please.
Ha “big league politics”
Constantine is currently an all-star at over-spending on stupid pet projects and appeasing the special interests who get him reelected.
This article fails to mention the mountains of union money Constantine has coming his way in exchange for???? (Maybe preserving the most generous benefits packages in the region during his current budget disaster.)
As far as Susan Hutchinson campaigning in rural cities, such as Orting, Duvall, and Skykomish, I think it’s a great idea for her to concentrate her efforts in Orting. Of course, Orting is in Pierce County and unlikely to yield many votes in a King County election.
6. The Right Wing Media Underdog Problem – Republicans, since Nixon, have portrayed themselves as victims of a left leaning press. Reagan and both Bushes harnessed this technique to suggest that there brand of conservatism was main stream and that the press was just out to get them and exaggerate their proposals. This has resulted in extreme right wing candidates (like every Republican President after Ford) getting minimal criticism while moderate Democrats (like every Democratic President after LBJ) being portrayed as solidly to the left (as an example, the current “socialist” health care plan Obama is proposing is very similar to the one Nixon proposed, but very few in the press are reporting this).
If things get tight, Dan Constantine should turn the tables and portray himself as a victim of a press supporting one of their own and ganging up on him. Perhaps the best way to do this would be at a debate, where he ambiguously refers to “you folks in the media”. Let the moderator try to figure out if he means his opponent or the press. When asked, Constantine should reply “Both — my opponent is a media insider as well”. This will result in more favorable press coverage. Main stream newspapers (e. g. Seattle Times) try very hard to appear to me fair and non-partisan. It would be nice if Constantine turned the tables and applied the same technique. Then again, I don’t think he will need to — for all their faults, the Seattle Times will probably make the sensible choice and enthusiastically endorse Constantine. That alone should be enough for him to win comfortably.
6. The Right Wing Media Underdog Problem – Republicans, since Nixon, have portrayed themselves as victims of a left leaning press. Reagan and both Bushes harnessed this technique to suggest that there brand of conservatism was main stream and that the press was just out to get them and exaggerate their proposals. This has resulted in extreme right wing candidates (like every Republican President after Ford) getting minimal criticism while moderate Democrats (like every Democratic President after LBJ) being portrayed as solidly to the left (as an example, the current “socialist” health care plan Obama is proposing is very similar to the one Nixon proposed, but very few in the press are reporting this).
If things get tight, Dan Constantine should turn the tables and portray himself as a victim of a press supporting one of their own and ganging up on him. Perhaps the best way to do this would be at a debate, where he ambiguously refers to “you folks in the media”. Let the moderator try to figure out if he means his opponent or the press. When asked, Constantine should reply “Both — my opponent is a media insider as well”. This will result in more favorable press coverage. Main stream newspapers (e. g. Seattle Times) try very hard to appear to me fair and non-partisan. It would be nice if Constantine turned the tables and applied the same technique. Then again, I don’t think he will need to — for all their faults, the Seattle Times will probably make the sensible choice and enthusiastically endorse Constantine. That alone should be enough for him to win comfortably.
Dow has a sixth problem. He employs former Stranger writer Sandeep Kaushik as his spokesman. Candidates who employ Kaushik go on to defeat; to wit, Greg Nickels and Darcy Burner.
Dow runs such a crude campaign. Can’t stand his “Admit you’re a Republican or Die” tactics. Advantage to Hutchison. She may be considered dumb, but Dow is dumber. He’ll win the Seattle vote, nothing else out of Seattle.
The fact Dow is not already trouncing the GOP psyco bitch is a sign he is too weak to be the County Executive.
Dow is the Rick Lazio of King County. Dow takes great delight from getting in her space and attacking.
Dow is fratboy who follows football. He gave a standing ovation to and applauded enthusiastically for former Washington coach Jim Owens at half-time of a game at Husky Stadium on 10/25/03.
I’m not making this up. Ask him. Let me say that he sat on the south side of Husky Stadium, toward the west at an upper-level seat. He was a councilmember then and easily recognizable, as he is today. Former Husky coach Jim Owens was controversial on that day; Dow can’t plead ignorance.
Regarding the math at the beginning of the article: Since Fred Jarrett is considered a closer-to-center, moderate Democratic candidate, many of his supporters could just as easily lean to the right instead of voting for Constantine (as with Ross Hunter supporters).
A frat boy who follows football? OH NOES!
RE: Orting. Please tell me Hutchison actually ‘name-checked’ it. As noted above, its in Pierce Co and this would be yet another sign that she doesn’t know the basic govt functions (or the geographic extent) of King County. If, however, Orting was selected by Mr Sanders, well, then i don’t expect the Stranger to know where anything is outside of the Pike-Pine corridor.
Susan “Palin” Hutchinson ring tone here: http://horsesass.org/?p=20284
Dow will put a beat down on Susan. And, yes, Eddie Vedder did endorse him. Go Huskies!
Hi, Eli.
You seem to think Dow Constantine is the better choice for King County Council President and you hopefully favor him to win the election. I concur. Why then, in an election in which the decisive demograph may be people for whom the theory of evolution is problematic, would you publish your advice and keen insight, rather than direct it TO D.C.’s CAMPAIGN STAFF? Judas!
On another note, please be more careful when using a relative pronoun as the first word of a sentence. It lacks precision.
Ex 1:
“Which is to say, she’s ready to play the victim.”
Ex2:
Which is why such brochure-speak techniques are best reserved for Buick print-ads and the like.
No Kidding. What nuggets of wisdom may we impart to Susan Hutchison’s campaign, all in the interest of assisting another faux-flag-draped Republicrat flop her way to the top? Need we counsel her away from wearing idiotic pantsuits that make her look like a drunken clown? Must we implore her to back-pedal her declared affinity for BOTH kinds of music: Alan Jackson AND Kenny Chesney? Please, everyone chime in. What other information could help subvert the Constantine campaign. Don’t be shy. If Dow told you he saw Jesus in the Coffee-Mate at an AA meeting, by all means, share it with King County and its newest annexee: Orting, Washington.
Clearly being a Huskies fan in King County is going to lose him votes…
In what way is this election related to being a “Huskies” fan? A silly Cougar are you?
I don’t think people paid any attention in the primary and just voted for a name. Once they figure out who Hutchison really is she will get flattened.
Avoid underestimating the power of idiocy; Sarah Palin still enjoys a 30% approval rating among self-identified Christian Republicans. When George Bush finally left office, he STILL had a 20% approval rating.
It goes on…
Today (Thursday) on Way Too Early with Willie Geist, a new poll result:
Eight percent of New Jersey residents polled, believe President Obama is the Antichrist. The survey is by Public Policy Polling.
Hutchison may be unworthy of public office, but that has been proven a surmountable obstacle time and again.
If people are willing to see King Country fall into the hands of someone who has no experience, than Hutchinson is by far the best person to do that. To be compared to Sarah Palin isn’t very flattering and a doesn’t help her cause.