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6:15 PM
The biggest county in Arizona, and the source of most of the state's uncounted ballots, just released the results from about 70,000 counted ballots. Trump barely received more ballots than Biden in this batch, narrowing the distance between the two to 29,861 votes statewide. However, Trump did not win the 57.5% share of the vote to put him on track to win Arizona over Biden. While this closes the gap between the two candidates, this latest ballot drop is still good news for Biden. More tomorrow.
71,932 ballots dropped from Maricopa
— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 7, 2020
Biden: 31,433 (43.6%)
Trump: 38,388 (53.4%)
5:15 PM
According to the New York Times' liveblog, word on the street is the Biden campaign expects the former vice president to speak tonight, official call be damned. The plan was for Biden to address the nation with a "primetime" speech as he looks victory right in the motherfucking face, but the tone of his speech will depend on what the results look like. "Things are still fluid."
5 PM
The state of Nevada would like us to get off their asses, please!
State election officials just announced that they have stopped counting today, with about 120,000 ballots left statewide. The state plans on dropping their next ballot drop around 9 am Seattle-time tomorrow.
On top of that, a federal judge in Nevada has denied state Republicans’ emergency request to stop the use of signature-verification machines. Yesterday, Nevada GOP groups filed a lawsuit that aimed to prevent Clark County’s use of the machines in their ballot-counting process. It looks like that’s not going to happen.
Right now, we’re waiting on the latest ballot drop in Maricopa County and will be back with more updates soon.
4:30 PM
Trump has no intention of ever conceding, according to a Vanity Fair article that cites Trump's allies. When asked about this plan, a Biden campaign person said: "The U.S. government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House."
Meanwhile, on the Tweet Machine, Trump claimed he "had such a big lead in all of these states late into election night, only to see the leads miraculously disappear as the days went by." He did not, Biden was leading the popular and electoral votes late into the first election night, and the leads did not "miraculously" disappear. We counted more votes. That's not miraculous. It's democracy.
3 PM
Twitter confirmed that Trump will no longer have special protections once he leaves office. The platform's newsworthiness policy gives special protections to public officials with over 250,000 followers, allowing them to break more rules than the typical user. How many rules? Unclear. But the platform's current opinion seems to be that Trump could drive us toward a coup on the platform so long as he's in office. Ban him now. What's the point?
“Frankly, we did win this election," - Donald J. Trump, early Wednesday morning. https://t.co/PqSD5fqICL
— Joe Veyera (@JoeVeyera) November 6, 2020
2:45PM
While we're greedy to fast-forward to January—imagine Trump getting dragged out of the White House, doesn't that make you smile?—we may not know who won any of the consequential states until next week.
The race in Georgia is going to a recount—AP doesn't call races that go to a recount. Though Nevada started strong with Biden enjoying a 20,137 vote lead today, there are still 190,000 votes, mainly mail-in and provisional ballots, left to count. Election officials there say they plan on counting 63,000 mail-in ballots this weekend—which is not today.
North Carolina, where Trump is leading, still has 116,000 mail ballots and 41,000 provisional ballots left to count. Election officials have until November 12 to tabulate all those votes—also, not today.
Finally, Pennsylvania has about 113,000 absentee ballots to count statewide, while Philadelphia alone has 40,000 left. Allegheny County also has around 36,000 votes left, 29,000 of which the county could not count until this evening due to a court order. If there is "less than a half percentage point difference between Biden’s and Trump’s vote totals, [Pennsylvania] state law dictates that a recount must be held." Which, again, would prevent outlets like AP from calling the race.
We're going to be in this for the long haul, folks.
So, I am open-minded but not super persuaded by this. There are a handful of counties to have counted provisional ballots so far and those ballots indeed went for Trump, but they came from counties where the rest of the vote was *even stronger* for Trump.https://t.co/DXMdQJyfS5 https://t.co/h3gyCwCeNK
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
The 5pm deadline for Georgia military & overseas ballots has passed. There were 8,410 still outstanding and we await word on how many were returned. 18,008 were already counted and are part of the county/state totals on the big board, with Biden currently leading Trump by 4,235.
— Brendan Keefe (@BrendanKeefe) November 6, 2020
A little weather update, because why not: It's going to be sunny in Seattle this weekend. And very cold. Winds will slap between 5 and 15 miles per hour with temperatures around the upper 40s.
1 PM
Ok. So. We still don't know who is officially president. However. We have a pretty freakin' good idea that it will be Joseph R. Biden, Jr., and not Donald Trump. We're not celebrating just yet. Instead, we're drinking coffee, doing tiny dabs, and watching all these numbers come in from counties across Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. And we're loving what we're seeing.
Here's a brief State O' The Race as of right now:
Biden is beating Trump by 43,779 votes in Arizona. Biden is beating Trump by 13,410 votes in Pennsylvania. Biden is beating Trump by 20,137 votes in Nevada. That lead is thanks in part to new results from Clark County, home of Las Vegas. AP is holding off on calling this race as they wait for the state to count outstanding mail-in and provisional ballots. Clark County will continue to count through the weekend, which is when they hope to finish, with more results from another batch of votes coming in three hours (SO THEY SAY). Biden is beating Trump by 1,585 votes in Georgia. And, as Charles mentioned in Slog AM, they will probably go to a recount since the final margin will likely remain razor-thin once the state counts all the votes. Trump is beating Biden by 76,737 votes in North Carolina. But there's no path to victory for the Trump campaign without most of these other states. We are REVELING in this information and would kill to take a peek at the White House's Slack. We bet ol' boy is going ballistic right about now.
We'll continue to keep you updated ballot drop by ballot drop. Some more things to consider while you wait:
.@SteveKornacki says there are 100k provisional ballots in PA that, so far, have been skewing toward Trump and are part of the reason we don't have a call https://t.co/1BQEHf9hbb
— Alex Thompson (@AlxThomp) November 6, 2020
I don't know, but it sure seems to me like not calling the race when the outcome is obvious in states like PA and NV gives the president more time to spout misinformation.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2020
Also, Biden is prepping "a prime-time speech Friday evening," although no word on which coast's prime-time we're talking about. We assume everything is on Georgia time now.