The Stranger did something new this year: we teamed up with DHM Research, a PNW-based non-partisan public opinion research firm, to formally survey the city and find out what’s happening this year in Seattle politics.
Let’s start with the big news: Progressives are ahead. Among likely voters, 33 percent plan to vote for Dionne Foster, compared to 24 percent who plan to vote for Sara Nelson. Erika Evans is polling 11 points ahead of Ann Davison. And Alexis Mercedes Rinck is a whopping 34 points ahead of Rachael Savage.
The tightest race is for the mayor’s office. While Katie Wilson is four points ahead of Bruce Harrell with likely voters, her lead is within the margin of error. That means they’re statistically tied.
This race is going to be all about turnout.
When we polled the general population, Wilson had a 12-point lead on Harrell, 46 percent to 34 percent. But when we limited the sample to people who are likely to vote in this general election, her lead narrows to that 4-point statistical tie.
To reclaim some of that 12-point lead, Wilson would need to get out the vote with the “50/50 voters”—people who said turning in their ballot this November was a toss-up. Among them—which was about a third of respondents—54 percent are leaning Wilson.
Wilson won the primary almost nine percentage points ahead of Harrell. But 24 percent of the people who voted in the primary say there’s only a 50 percent chance they’ll vote in the general, meaning she can’t necessarily count on those same voters turning out.
We can’t say for sure why primary voters might not come out this time around. But the political climate has changed dramatically since August 5. In the primary, Wilson was still seen as an upstart candidate, riding a wave of populist enthusiasm that surfed across the country from Zohran Mamdani’s campaign. But her primary win woke Harrell up, and he’s spent the past two and a half months attacking her experience. Meanwhile, Harrell’s supporters have fired up the political machine that pushed the 2021 election to the right, rallying support behind a vision of “bipartisan,” “moderate,” “centrist” government.
The progressive cry for voter turnout aligns with political conventions here in Seattle. Young people skew more progressive, but they also tend to vote less.
“We interpret this data to mean that if our supporters turn out to vote, we will win the race,” the Wilson campaign said in a statement. “But that means our supporters need to show up to win this race!”
Harrell’s campaign did not respond to The Stranger‘s request for comment on this data.
What Makes a Wilson Voter?
There are two fault lines that divide Harrell and Wilson votes: age and income bracket. Younger voters, between 18 and 44, swing heavily toward Wilson. Meanwhile, Harrell has 66 percent of the 65-plus vote.
When it comes to income, Wilson takes everyone with a household income under $200,000 handily, and almost 60 percent of Wilson voters are renters. Harrell vibes most with the $350,000+ crowd.
These polling results mirror what we’ve seen consistently in the campaigns’ fundraising. Harrell’s PAC, Bruce Harrell for Seattle’s Future, is stacked with $1.6 million in big-dollar donations from commercial real estate developers, PACs for the building industry, and a smattering of people that are wealthy enough to own Seattle sports teams (including the Mariners’ John Stanton, and we’re not not saying that he cursed them in the playoffs with that $50,000 donation).
Between her PAC and her campaign, Wilson’s run is fueled by small-dollar donors. Her average itemized campaign donation is just $114, Harrell’s is almost twice that. Among Harrell’s PAC donors, 61 of them donated $10,000 or more. Wilson’s PAC has four.
For details on The Stranger/DHM Research’s methodology, go to: Stranger Polling
So people who would not be impacted by the massive tax increases she is proposing and who would be the recipients of all the goody bags she is promising are more likely to vote for Wilson. Who would have thunk? Give me a bunch of stuff and make someone else pay for it. What a great deal!
Too bad the economic reality is going to smack them (and Katie) in the face and they won’t get a fraction of what she is promising. I have made my peace with the coming backslide to progressive politics; businesses are bad guys, let’s tax everything and anyone, enabling anti social behavior in the name of compassion and a litany of other policies that didn’t work when we last had a progressive council. Back then it was literally raining money from the massive growth the city was experiencing and the only argument was how to spend it. Now the city is still facing deficits as a result of the spend first, don’t ask questions mentality so Katie is going to have a hard time following through on her commitments. The only way she has a hope of doing so would be by growing the overall tax base which means courting business to grow jobs and boosting the economy. When your mentality is to punish and demonize the very business you need for revenue I don’t see how that works. The most likely scenario is four years of stagnant to declining growth along with increases in public disorder that result in another massive rejection of progressives in 2029.
New York City and Seattle are in downward spiral into the abyss of misery under under horrible mayors.
From the “Stranger Polling” link: “The survey consisted of n=600 Seattle residents and took approximately 12 minutes to complete. The sample included n=400 likely voters and n=200 voters…”
Were those respondents’ names checked against King County’s voter rolls?
Anyway, the results show a slew of two-person races with no candidate having an outright majority, which rather strongly argues against the Stranger’s breathless narrative about the Seattle’s Second Coming of Progressivism.
“We interpret this data to mean that if our supporters turn out to vote, we will win the race,” the Wilson campaign said in a statement. “But that means our supporters need to show up to win this race!”
If they don’t vote for you, they aren’t your supporters are they?
To paraphrase Bernie S., “it’s all free!” Next time around it’ll swing the other way (as it always does) when the liberals fail to deliver. Everyone wants something for nothing when someone else is paying for it. Tax the “rich” and the rich move to greener pastures. Also… when revenue fails to meet expectations suddenly YOU become the rich as far as the libs are concerned!
Turning out voters favors community organizing – phone banks, canvassing, etc. – which is Katie’s strong suit. She needs to get her voters to show up and vote either by mail or in-person just like she did in the primary election. Bruce being down by 12 in the general population so close to the election spells doom. He does not generate a lot of ‘enthusiasm’ as a candidate, which hurts turn-out. He’ll get the “fear vote” – fear of progressive taxes from Katie – which helps turn out from wealthy areas of the city, but that is not enough to win. My prediction is 54-46 as the final vote in favor of Katie.
The mayors race is a whole lot closer than I thought it would be!
The Harrell/Wilson numbers only add up to 80%, which presumably means 20% are still undecided. That number dwarfs the 4% lead Wilson has among “likely voters”, so it seems like its a toss up. Interesting breakdown by age, with older voters decidedly preferring Harrell. As they say, with age comes wisdom…
@8: “Interesting breakdown by age, with older voters decidedly preferring Harrell.”
The graphic showing voter inclination by age shows an almost perfect correlation between “most likely to vote” (i.e. older) and “prefers Harrell.” Wilson will likely need a HUGE turnout amongst younger voters to overcome that.
good
thing for
the corporate
centrists Seatown
has its elections in Odd
numbered years. In card games
just like in Life!
it’s Good to
be Dealer.
I hope all of the progressives win.
Two years from now, when absolutely nothing has changed, it will be entertaining to watch leftists blame republicans.
“But her primary win woke her Harrell up” [sic]
@11 oh things will change, just not the way the progressives envision.
@10 I don’t hear you complaining when tax increases get voted through during low turnout primary vote. It’s amazingly simple to vote in WA state so if someone can’t be bothered to fill in a bubble and put a envelope in the mail because its an odd year election that’s not a failure of the voting process.
Will Sawant be Katie’s Chief of Staff?
Look like Seattle is going to take one giant step backward…..or forward if you liked the freebies and policies of the Detroit City Council from 1980s until the city’s bankruptcy in 2013.
If you’re a City of Seattle employee, be careful who you vote for. City of Detroit pensions were cut after the city went bankrupt
How to run for mayor on a platform of “Defund the Police” and “Stop the Sweeps” without ever saying “Defund the Police” and “Stop the Sweeps” out loud.
So basically renters, who are getting killed by the housing shortage, favor Wilson, who wants to build more housing. Homeowners, who have been made millionaires by the housing shortage, favor Harrell, who slow-walks more housing as much as he can.
I don’t care for either of them. The good thing is that it really doesn’t matter who the mayor is, but I’m afraid The Bright Young Things will end up disillusioned either way.
“The good thing is that it really doesn’t matter who the mayor is,”
Correct. City councils are so horrible in leftist hellhole cites that it doesn’t matter what woke horrible democrat is elected as mayor.
Red States:
the Worst in nearly
all categories, but Yeah
them damn Leftists can go to Hell.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.
H.L. Mencken
@9 It would be ironic if The Stranger’s incessant bragging about the decisive progressive victory ended up discouraging the young voters from bothering to vote since they’d assume their victory was already in the bag.
@21: And a “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline may yet loom in the Stranger’s future. Disturbing rumblings from New York City’s election suggest Mamdani may not have it in the bag, either:
“In New York City, Mamdani is leading the polls in the mayoral election by large margins, including women overall. But among likely voters, 45% of women over 50 plan to vote for Cuomo compared with 34% for Mamdani, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Oct. 9.”
[…]
‘Even some younger women agree. “We grew up with Bill Clinton,” quipped Staci Meier, a 35-year-old Manhattan mother who is pregnant with her second child. Meier said she isn’t ignoring sexual harassment allegations, but likes Cuomo’s pledge to hire 5,000 new police officers, which makes her feel safer particularly amid rising antisemitism.’
If similar concerns play out in New York Alki (the original name proposed for Seattle), the Stranger might not like the results.
The Bellevue Chamber of Commerce says “thank you”.
@22: ” But among likely voters, 45% of women over 50 plan to vote for Cuomo compared with 34% for Mamdani”
If one believes in women’s rights, an Islamic mayor is worse than a Christian, Jewish, or athiest mayor.
Have you ever watched a dying jackal in the midst of death throes?
Because it can still inflict injury.
@25: Dude…all the time! 😝