Today, July 2, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' job report
showed the economy added 4.8 million jobs in June. Experts thought it would be around 3 million. Last month, the report also surprised experts with an impressive 2.5 million jobs. On both occasions, Trump wasted no time holding a press conference and praising himself. The economy was roaring back. And it must roar back because he has nothing else going for him but the economy, which crashed in February and, over two months, lost 20 million jobs.
The markets transformed the good news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics into modest gains. But, as always, the markets are dreaming. Today's report is already dated. It only covers the first two weeks of June. This is around the time COVID-19 cases were rebounding after remaining mostly flat in May. Yesterday, the US recorded 50,000 cases, a figure that easily raced past the peak of the first surge, 43,000, on March 6. The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci, recently warned that the US could see 100,000 cases a day in the near future, if tougher anti-market and anti-election-winning measures are not imposed soon.
All of this means the economy is going to grind to a halt again. Already Arizona has closed business, as well as Texas. Florida, however, has decided to play with fire and keep things open. This will only delay its economic recovery and kill lots of people. Ron DeSantis, the governor of the Sunshine State, is fighting a losing battle.
My point: The stock markets are still in June, when new cases hovered between 14,000 cases and 24,000. We do not live in that economy anymore. We live in the one that tanked the economy in March.
There is more bad economic news.
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